644
FXUS63 KIWX 200435
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1235 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain, drizzle, and embedded thunderstorms expected
  to continue today. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding
  remains possible.

- Areas of light rain showers and drizzle possibly linger into
  the first half of next week.

- Cooler next week with highs only in the 60s Monday through
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Active weather will continue through the weekend and periods of
rain will remain possible through at least midweek. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary that is currently located just south
of the forecast area will be the focus for moderate to heavy
rain over the next 24 hours as a series of shortwaves move over
the region in near zonal flow. We are currently experiencing a
general lull in precip coverage/chances which will last through
mid evening before the next upper level impulse arrives. Another
shortwave and theta-e surge is expected tonight, focusing
locally heavy rain and embedded thunder mainly along and north
of the US 30 corridor. Another round then Sunday afternoon/evening
is possible, especially if/where any boundary layer heating can
occur, resulting in heavier convective elements. Localized
lowland and river/stream flooding, along with flash flooding,
remains a concern given the saturated ground and opportunties
for training elevated convection in this very moist 1.8-2.2 inch
PWAT air mass. No changes were made to the Flood Watch for now
(in effect through Sunday morning). Latest guidance does favor
areas north of the US 30 corridor for higher probs for 1-3"
plus. Luckily there are lower probabilities to the south, though
any additional rain in areas just south of Fort Wayne will
further exacerbate ongoing high water issues.

Drier conditions are forecast for Monday, although a weak
shortwave will move through Monday afternoon bringing some light
rain showers, mainly south of US 30. Then, a slow moving
through that is currently situated over the northern Rockies
will make its way eastward over the next several days and
finally move into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As the low crosses
the area going into Wednesday, periodic showers will continue,
and possibly persist into Thursday and Friday. High pressure
ridging will move in behind this system for mild and dry weather
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Rain, drizzle and the lingering threat for a few periods of
heavier convective elements will persist today as moisture
continues to funnel into a stalled baroclinic zone over
northern IN. Primarily IFR ceilings anticipated through the
period in this regime, though do expected ceilings and
visibilities to bounce around a bit. Easterly winds likely pick
up this afternoon to near 12 knots otherwise.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ005>009-012-014-015-017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ015-024.
MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>080-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Steinwedel