897
FXUS63 KIWX 041125
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
625 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain, mainly in the morning, gradually tapers off from west to
  east this afternoon.

- Not as warm today but remaining somewhat breezy with wind
  gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

- Drying out tonight through Thursday morning before lake
  enhanced showers begin and persist into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A 1002mb low swirls over far southwest WI early this morning
while a lagging cold front bulges into western IL. An area of
rain is lifting through the Ohio River Valley beneath 75-knot
500mb flow and a 50-knot 850-mb jet. Rain today will generally
amount to 0.10- 0.25". Far northwest OH might see slightly
more based on the trajectory of the heaviest returns upstream,
in an area of favorable moisture convergence aided by the
aformentioned jets. Forecast soundings show little chance of
any deep low-level mixing today which will keep wind gusts in
check; primarily 20 mph to 30 mph. Rain tapers off from west to
east by early afternoon as the dryslot moves overhead. Cold air
advection is delayed until late in the day due to boundary-
parallel flow and will be most noticeable by Thursday when with
lows in the mid- 40s and highs shy of 60 degrees (a touch mild
still for early November).

After a dry start to Thursday, a secondary trough axis ripples
through in the late afternoon providing ample lift for scattered
showers. Reinforcing cold air (2C at 850mb) over a 10-13C Lake
Michigan results in lake enhanced showers that persist into
Saturday morning. (If the airmass were colder, this would be a
solid LES setup.) Friday and Saturday are the coldest of this
forecast period as deep troughing is entrenched over the eastern
Great Lakes.

Temperatures inch upward early next week as we lie on the cusp of a
south-central US ridge. How far east this ridge propagates is
uncertain  with the prospect of a potential blocking pattern taking
shape over the interior Rockies. For now, precipitation chances
appear minimal, but a shift in energetic northwest flow could flip
the script if the ridge is not as strong, bringing passing chances
for light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Rain continues to lift through the state this morning ahead of
a cold front and low pressure system off to the west.
Observations indicate rain rates are consistently light; P6SM at
several locations. In contrast, ceilings are expected to lower
to low- end MVFR over the next couple of hours based on upstream
observations and available guidance. Cannot completely rule out
a brief dip to IFR with at least one FEW007 observation noted,
yet this seems to be an anomaly overall.

In the wake of the rain departing midday, ceilings are poised to
gradually improve toward high-end MVFR, especially at KFWA, as
drier low- level air seeps in. KSBN may remain locked into low-
end MVFR ceilings through the period due to their proximity to
the low.

A few wind gusts today near 24 knots with wind veering
to become SW through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Brown