773
FXUS63 KIWX 271811
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
211 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous rain showers on Thursday.

- Dry with below normal temperatures for the holiday weekend.

- Dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions expected for Lake
  Michigan beaches Thursday into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A lead, low amplitude, shortwave over Iowa will track east-southeast
late this afternoon into early this evening with nothing more than
some passing clouds locally given stable and dry low levels. A
corridor of isentropic ascent and theta-e advection does materialize
into the lower Great Lakes within a modest westerly low level jet
(25-30 kt) later tonight into Thursday morning. This will occur in
advance of a more pronounced mid level trough and associated cold
front dropping southeast from Ontario and the western Great Lakes.
12z guidance has held consistent with the idea of at least scattered
to numerous showers with this initial round of WAA and mid level
cva, with coverage, intensity and the chance for an embedded rumble
of thunder dependent on how quickly the low levels can saturate. The
primary cold front then does slide southeast through the area later
in the day Thursday with lingering chances for scattered showers,
though deeper forcing/moisture will be east of the area by this time
resulting in lower end PoPs for most.

Cooler and drier air will funnel in for Friday post-frontal, with
sunshine and gradual moderation in time for the holiday weekend as
expansive high pressure dominates. Warmer, near normal, temps are
then expected into much of next week with rainfall chances
increasing toward midweek as the next upper trough drops a cold
front into the vicinity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Cyclonic flow aloft across the Great Lakes region will result in
a favorable short wave track for a disturbance to track into the
southern Great Lakes on Thursday. Westerly flow preceding the
associated front will allow for increased moisture during the
overnight and early morning hours. Best chances of rain at
terminals looks to be in the 12-16Z timeframe when a mid/upper
level trough has its greatest influence with some low level
frontogenesis response also expected ahead of the cold front.
Did include TEMPO SHRA during this period of greatest
confidence. Thunder is possible, but expected limited coverage
with limited instability profiles argues for continued omission
with the 12Z TAFs. MVFR cigs will be possible in the vicinity of
and behind the accompanying cold front toward the end of this
forecast valid period. These MVFR cigs should mix out during the
mid-late afternoon hours however.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili