529
FXUS63 KIWX 280009
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
809 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous rain showers on Thursday.

- Dry with below normal temperatures for the holiday weekend.

- Dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions expected for Lake
  Michigan beaches Thursday into Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A lead, low amplitude, shortwave over Iowa will track east-southeast
late this afternoon into early this evening with nothing more than
some passing clouds locally given stable and dry low levels. A
corridor of isentropic ascent and theta-e advection does materialize
into the lower Great Lakes within a modest westerly low level jet
(25-30 kt) later tonight into Thursday morning. This will occur in
advance of a more pronounced mid level trough and associated cold
front dropping southeast from Ontario and the western Great Lakes.
12z guidance has held consistent with the idea of at least scattered
to numerous showers with this initial round of WAA and mid level
cva, with coverage, intensity and the chance for an embedded rumble
of thunder dependent on how quickly the low levels can saturate. The
primary cold front then does slide southeast through the area later
in the day Thursday with lingering chances for scattered showers,
though deeper forcing/moisture will be east of the area by this time
resulting in lower end PoPs for most.

Cooler and drier air will funnel in for Friday post-frontal, with
sunshine and gradual moderation in time for the holiday weekend as
expansive high pressure dominates. Warmer, near normal, temps are
then expected into much of next week with rainfall chances
increasing toward midweek as the next upper trough drops a cold
front into the vicinity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Main focus remains on upstream disturbance set to move into the
region late tonight into Thursday with an associated cold front.
Ahead of it, a strengthen low level jet will quickly usher in
increased moisture and lift to aid in the development of at least
scattered showers in the 12-18Z time frame (initially at KSBN
then progressing SE). As eluded to in the previous discussion,
some higher end MVFR cigs may exist near/behind the front but
should quickly mix out as drier air moves back in.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher