338
FXUS63 KIWX 102308
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
608 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air returns with 1-2" of lake effect snow possible this
  evening in northwest IN and southwest MI.

- 1-2" of light snow possible Thursday night, mainly south of
  US-30.

- More light snow is expected this weekend, along with very cold
  air. Wind chill values may drop below -10F Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

A trailing cold front, currently near the US 24 corridor as of 18z,
will continue southeast clearing the rest of our forecast area by
early this evening. Associated convergence under weakened
deformation will allow for light precipitation (rain changing to
light snow) to accompany this feature with little to no snow
accumulation.

Attention then turns to marginally favorable conditions for LES late
this afternoon into tonight as 850 mb delta T`s push 20 in colder
northwest flow. The overall moisture quality and meager 5-6 kft
inversion heights doesn`t really favor a sustained vigorous lake
response, though the cloud layer does reach into the DGZ for
localized 1-2" snows and minor travel impacts in favored nnw flow
snow belts.

Cold northwest flow will send a couple more clippers southeast
through the Midwest and Ohio Valley late this week into the weekend.
These appear to be your more classic clippers that have relatively
narrow snow swaths (2-5"). A model consensus favors the Thursday
night wave and heavier fgen snow to bypass just southwest of the
area, though still possibly clipping areas mainly southwest of US 30
with a quick 1-2" of snow. Still some wriggle room left for a slight
north or south tick. Another clipper then follows through Saturday
afternoon-night with additional snow chances, followed by LES and
sub-zero wind chills Sunday into Sunday night. This cold/wintry
pattern then finally breaks down next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

An upper-level trough axis is now east of Lake Michigan which
has resulted in a decline of organized lake effect snow. As a
result, have backed off the magnitude (intensity) of the LES at
KSBN and have narrowed the time frame for lake effect snow
showers to impact KFWA. Passing snow showers may come and go at
KSBN until the low-level wind profile backs slightly to the
west as the evening progresses. Beyond the first 4-6 hours of
this TAF period, lake effect is poised to struggle to persist at
KFWA not only due to the anticipated backing flow but rising
inversion heights as well.

Medium-high confidence in VFR ceilings Thursday afternoon as
drier air briefly moves in.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown