234
FXUS63 KIWX 290447
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1247 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, pleasant weather for Labor Day weekend.

- Dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions expected for Lake
  Michigan beaches through Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Cold front near the Michigan border will track south through
the area mid afternoon through early evening. Deeper
moisture/lift with an associated shortwave clips ne IN/nw OH/sc
MI with greatest coverage (50-70%) of showers/storms with cold
mid level temps overtop pooled moisture (near 60F sfc dewpoints)
supporting 500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE along the front. Lesser
coverage (10-30%) to west and south where larger scale
subsidence/drying overspreads the frontal zone. Brief downpours
and perhaps some small hail with stronger cores given the chilly
thermal profile aloft.

Northerly post-frontal flow will usher in another round of cooler
and drier air into Friday with highs struggling to reach 70F. Models
do continue to differ on how far lake clouds reach later
tonight into Friday morning within a subsidence inversion. Kept
with partly cloudy wording for now given the low confidence and
rather thin/shallow moisture profile.

The holiday weekend will feature pleasant weather conditions as sfc
high pressure settles in between anomalous ridging over central
Canada and an upper low meandering east through far southern Quebec
and northern New England. Dry and stable conditions will be locked
in with temperatures gradually on the rise (highs low-mid 70s
Saturday to near 80F by Labor Day).

Ensemble guidance and the bulk of deterministic solutions continue to
amplify an upper trough into the Eastern US during the mid-late week
periods. This will likely drive a strong cold front through around
Wednesday or Thursday with the next chance for showers/storms,
followed by breezy/cool conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Existing TAFs were on track resulting in no changes for this
issuance. The primary item of concern continues to be a TEMPO
for IFR conditions at KFWA. Confidence remains medium at best.
Upstream to the northeast, some marine modified air is seeping
through northwest OH with FEW-SCT017 and BKN030 observed. Thus,
the TEMPO group remains within the realm of possibility. Light
wind today at or below 7kts on either side of 360 degrees.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 AM CDT Friday for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown