665
FXUS63 KIWX 021930
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
230 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some patchy drizzle or light rain showers/sprinkles will likely
  continue at times through this evening.

- Much better chances for rain (80-100%) arrive late Tuesday
  night into early Wednesday. Rainfall amounts are generally
  expected to be one quarter of an inch or less.

- Highs will be well into the 70s on Tuesday with breezy
  conditions but otherwise highs remain around 60 the rest of
  the week.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Broad advective forcing continues across the region with water vapor
imagery and near term hi-res guidance initializations depicting
next weak short wave across the Mid MS Valley. THis should
allow for a few more waves of drizzle and possibly a few light
rain showers this evening but most locations will be dry or
experience just trace amounts. As mentioned in previous
discussion, guidance has struggled today with temps with a
maintenance in blended guidance of a warm bias. Extensive low
clouds and occasional very light drizzle have resulted in
temperatures hovering from the 55 to 60 degree range for most
locations. Temperatures are expected to show little movement
through the night tonight as warm advection offsets most of
diurnal tendencies. Overnight, the aforementioned lead short
wave should shift east of the area allowing for mid/upper level
height rises to build back in from the west.

The attention for Tuesday will be on evolution of large scale
upper trough, and in particular the upper height minimum across
the southern Plains that will lift north as an upper jet streak
progresses through the downstream portion of this trough.
Moisture transport will steadily increase in advance of this
trough tonight into Tuesday, but with better mid/upper dynamics
displaced well west/southwest, will maintain a dry forecast
through the day. Windy and warm conditions will be the main
story on Tuesday as near term buffer soundings suggest some
potential of tapping into 30 to 35 knot top of boundary layer
flow across northwest/portions of north central Indiana during
the afternoon hours. Thickening mid cloud and moistening low/mid
levels could result in mixing heights not being maximized
however. Based on magnitude of low level thermals alone, highs
should approach record levels in the middle 70s for Tuesday.

Categorical PoPs have been maintained for Tuesday night into
Wednesday AM due to the combination of initial LLJ forcing
followed by passage of cold front. While cannot completely rule
out an isolated storm with some very weak elevated instability
Tuesday night, any instability of note will likely be confined
well south across the Lower MS Valley. With stronger upper
dynamics expected to bypass the area to the southwest/south,
frontal convergence fields are a bit weaker across the local
area with a camp of guidance still suggesting more limited
rainfall amounts. Given progressive nature of LLJ axis and low
level baroclinic zone, this does not look to be a significant
hydro event.

Dry slot punches into the area from southwest to northeast on
Wednesday, withs some additional rain showers possible
Thursday night through Friday as better moisture profiles wrap
around the slowly eastward meandering upper low. Some lake
enhancement is expected with the rain showers, but instability
depths are quite limited without any push of dramatically colder
mid level air.

The large scale pattern will favor additional influence from an
eastern Pacific jet streak in closing off another system across
central CONUS for the weekend but confidence in timing these
additional rain chances is low. Given expected weak
baroclinicity in this pattern and preference to systems more
vertically stacked in nature, no significant rainfall events
are anticipated through the next 7 days. Temperatures should
trend near normal by this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Southerly flow through the period with winds 10-12kt through the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings with occasional light drizzle will
give way to a occasional light rain showers into the evening
hours, especially near FWA. Low-level wind shear will spread
across the area tonight after 06-07Z with a shear vector of
200-210 degrees. LLWS will subside after 13-15Z Tue, but expect
southerly winds to increase and become gusty up to 25kt during
peak heating.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Brown