245
FXUS63 KIWX 222320
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
720 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (20%) for isolated showers and storms
  Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening.

- Much cooler Sunday through Wednesday with lake effect rain showers
  possible at times.

- Dangerous swimming conditions possible for southeast Lake
  Michigan beaches Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Surface high pressure will slide off to the south tonight with light
southwest winds developing overnight. There should be just enough
flow and clouds around to preclude more widespread fog later
tonight, but could still see some patchy ground fog across mainly
southern zones later tonight.

Low pressure tracking into Ontario will drive a cold front southeast
through the local area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
There will be a narrow plume of low level moisture preceding the
front, however dry mid levels, lacking frontal convergence, and
limited CAPE magnitudes precludes anything higher than a slight
chance (20%) PoP for a non-severe shower or storm along the front.

A touch of fall follows post-frontal Sunday through the middle of
next week as cool and unsettled northwest flow develops under the
upper low stalling over southeast Canada. Several shortwaves will
pivot through in this regime with reinforcing shots of cooler air
and potential enhancements to lake effect rain showers as 850 mb
delta T`s push the mid to upper teens. Mid level dry slot on Sunday
may keep most of the area partly sunny and dry, with better lake
effect/enhanced rain chances (20-30%) arriving Sunday night into
Monday. Some moderation is then expected for the second half of
the week as upper troughing begins to ease eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Abundant VFR stratocu will slowly dissipate this evening but
additional warm/moist air advection later tonight will likely
support the return of some low VFR (possible brief MVFR)
ceilings by Sat morning, especially at KSBN. A cold front will
then bring a very low chance of showers/storms Sat afternoon and
evening. Moisture/instability and forcing are all weak and
expect any convection to remain very isolated. Will therefore
hold off on mentioning in the TAF`s.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD