494
FXUS63 KIWX 011643
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1143 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers this morning, mostly cloudy but remaining mild
  with highs well into the 60s.

- Very warm on Tuesday and breezy followed by increasing rain
  chances through Wednesday (60% chance).

- Rain showers may linger at times into Thursday and Friday,
  with highs near 60.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

A trough working its way through the mid-Missippi valley today
brings plenty of clouds to our local area while the best rain chance
associated with this features resides outside of our forecast area
to the south. I did carry 10% POPs for the day in preparation for
any rogue sprinkles in this period of continued, weak WAA and ascent.

Rain chances increase in the days ahead as the 500-mb pattern
becomes highly amplified due to a deep trough emerging from the
Rockies. Gulf moisture seeps in atop a mid-Atlantic ridge, perhaps
leading to isoalted showers Monday afternoon. Low confidence on this
as the best moisture pooling is off to the west, yet available CAMs
do litter portions of the area with isolated showers. Very warm and
breezy Tuesday as one low occludes over the UP and cyclogenesis
renews over the Central Plains. We`ll see high temperatures soar
well into the 70s (challenging records) depending on cloud cover.
Similarly, the magnitude of any synoptic wind gusts will hinge on
breaks in the clouds aiding to mix down a strengthening low-level
jet. Poor lapse rates and a lack of instability look to keep the
severe weather risk in check Wednesday as the occluded front moves
through in the first half of the day. With the low lingering over
the Midwest Thursday, breezy conditions may persist while rain
chances pause within the dry slot of this expansive system.

Not a ton of cold air behind this low with ridging noted in the Lee
of the Rockies. The result is high temperatures to finish out the
week right near 60 with lows near 40. Low shower chances may persist
through the end of the week until the low finally exits over the
Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Sprinkles and scattered light rain showers are expected to
persist this afternoon and evening. Winds are light and variable
this afternoon and should gradually increase overnight to about
10 kts out of the southeast as WAA ramps up. VFR ceilings and
visibilities will prevail with ceilings between 8-10 kft
overnight. There may be a brief lull overnight but another round
of showers should arrive tomorrow morning. Ceilings will likely
quickly drop between 06-12Z. Expect MVFR ceilings and light
rain showers along and south of US 30 by daybreak.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson