392
FXUS63 KIWX 060913
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
413 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 30s through Wednesday except briefly colder Saturday
  with highs in the lower 20s.

- Snow Saturday night, ending Sunday afternoon, amounts 1-3
  inches. Impacts appear limited.

- Snow mixed with rain at times through this upcoming week.
  Impacts should be relatively few and limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Southwest flow at the surface was ahead of a cold front that
extended from PIA to ORD overnight. Kept a slight chance for light
snow and light freezing drizzle into this morning. BUFKIT soundings
support more of a freezing drizzle sounding given a relative warm
cold layer (-5C). Surface reports and radar imagery show
precipitation and returns mainly north of Highway 30. Weak cold air
advection in the cloud layer with subsidence above will help
continue to support a a building subsidence inversion.

Two more reinforcing surges of cold air will bring returns of arctic
air this weekend. Inversion heights should be limited for lake
effect snow. However, system snow should reach the forecast area
late Saturday night and taper to lake flurries Sunday afternoon.
BUFKIT sounding favor 2-3" of snow mainly north of Highway 30
this weekend with less than an inch at Lima. The second surge of
arctic air should arrive late Sunday. Wind chill temperatures
are likely to fall below zero Sunday night and Monday night.
Current thinking that these 2 nights will not need headlines,
but can be handled with Special Weather Statements.

Temperatures will try to make it close to normal Wednesday, but then
fall again late this upcoming week with the next arctic surge. Highs
by Saturday may not make it to 20 degrees. Dynamic Ensemble data appears
to be too weak with the system snow this weekend, but indicates
about 3" of snow is expected late this upcoming week with the
next system. WPC Winter Weather Forecast does show a 10-30%
chance of melted snow >=0.25 (water equivalent).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Predominantly MVFR/VFR conditions at the terminals tonight. A
trough moving through the area tonight led to some light snow
and perhaps patches of freezing drizzle near KSBN, and this will
persist through the morning as a cold front swings through. VFR
ceilings persist as of this writing, but expect them to drop to
around 1500-2500 ft at both terminals later tonight into the
morning hours (first at KSBN)-as most of the guidance suggests.
Upstream observations (WI/IL)show ceilings in this range, with
some dropping to around 1kft. Have VCSH with a prob30 for
potential snow/fzdz at KSBN through the overnight, then
remaining dry at KFWA. Most of the guidance keeps deeper
moisture further north. Winds shift from southwest to west
through the day, eventually becoming more light/variable this
evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD