272
FXUS63 KIWX 200515
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1215 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly cloudy through the remainder of the week with highs in
  the mid 40s today, and the low-mid 50s for Thursday and
  Friday.

- There is a chance (20-60%) for light rain Thursday night
  through early Saturday, best chances south of US 24.

- Additional chances for showers returns by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Clearing line of extensive stratus deck came to a halt north of the
MI/IN state line and is unlikely to budge any further for the time
being. Even if it was clearing out, mid/high clouds were streaming
in from the west to limit (well at least dim) any sunshine. After
sunset, the stratus should expand back north somewhat as the
inversion remains in place.

The overall zonal upper level flow will persist into Thursday with a
weak trough dropping south out of MI that will likely do little more
than keep the cloud cover around. One plus will be a shift to SW
winds and a quick shot of somewhat warmer air (highs in the 50s),
but depending on the amount of cloud cover this could be hampered
somewhat. Model blends are keeping some slgt chc to chc pops in
Thursday night as some weak isentropic lift arrives, but the low
levels remain rather dry yet so best chances should remain south of
the forecast area into early Friday. Thereafter, still mixed signals
in the models as to the track and strength of the upper level slow
currently moving across southern CA. This will eject NE Friday and
Friday night, but will run into the stronger upper low centered
south of James Bay resulting in low confidence on how far north any
precip will make it into the forecast area during the day Friday.
Have not deviated from model blend which keeps highest pops south.

In the wake of this weaker system for Friday, yet another deep upper
level low will dive south along the west coast over the weekend and
then slowly edge east into next week. As it does, a strong northern
stream wave will drop out of southern Alaska this weekend and
approach North Dakota by mid week. At the moment, timing of these 2
features is separated enough to likely limit phasing, but both will
need to be monitored. The southern stream wave should bring at least
a chance for showers next week, but pops will remain in the chc
range for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Weak warm advection over a saturated inversion may allow for
times of drizzle and visibilities reduced to 1-2 miles this
morning, mainly at KSBN. Light winds and cigs generally IFR to
low MVFR otherwise through much of the period as pesky low
clouds likely persist.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Steinwedel