986
FXUS63 KIWX 290940
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
540 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect until 8 AM ET for
  Berrien County, MI and until 4 PM CT in La Porte County, IN.
  Hazardous swimming conditions for southeast Lake Michigan
  beaches continue today.

- A bit cooler today with highs in the low 70s (slightly cooler
  in the upper 60s) today before temperatures gradually warm
  into the holiday weekend.

- Dry through the holiday weekend and into early next week.
  Highs in the low 80s by Labor Day.

- Next chances for rain/storms arrive on Wednesday and Thursday
  when a strong cold front pushes through, bringing a
  reinforcing shot of cooler air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The cold front that brought scattered rain to the area yesterday is
now south of our area. Behind the front, breezy northwest flow has
allowed for waves to increase on southern Lake Michigan. A Beach
Hazards Statement remains in effect until 8 AM ET for Berrien
County, MI and until 4 PM CT in La Porte County, IN with waves
of 3 to 6 feet. Strong rip currents and structural currents are
expected. Even after the Beach Hazards Statement expires,
hazardous swimming conditions are expected to continue today as
northwest flow persists.

As an area of high pressure meanders over the Upper Great Lakes
region over the next several days, dry conditions are expected and
temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than average.
Northwest flow and intermittent cloud cover off of Lake Michigan
will keep temperatures capped around 70 today (slightly cooler in
the upper 60s near Lake Michigan). Tonight into early Saturday
morning, clearing skies and light winds will allow for temperatures
to drop to near record levels with lows in the mid 40s.

Into the holiday weekend, the aforementioned area of high pressure
with be right overhead northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, and
southwest Lower Michigan. Temperatures gradually warm as subtle WAA
ensues with highs in the low 80s area-wide by Labor Day. Can`t ask
for a better unofficial end to summer with seasonable temperatures,
comfortable humidity, light winds, and sunshine!

A strong upper level ridge over the Four Corners region continues to
drive an active, unseasonably early fall pattern across the
area. For the second time in two weeks, it appears as though a
strong cold front could sweep through much of the eastern US
with another taste of fall on the horizon. The next chances for
rain/storms arrive by midweek as the cold front and an
associated upper level trough pivot through much of the Midwest
to Southeast. Long range model guidance is fairly in agreement
regarding the arrival of breezy and cooler conditions by the end
of the week. The GFS does try to develop a cutoff low over
Ontario by next weekend, which could prolong cloud cover and
chances for rain/storms in the Great Lakes region if this
scenario does play out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Lake induced stratus continues to trek west early this morning.
This has forced my hand to amend KSBN to include a period of
IFR ceilings. The eastern edge of this stratus is showing some
sings of dissipating which increases confidence in the end time
of stratus.

High pressure today promotes light wind on either side of 360
degrees and VFR conditions.

Late in the TAF period, look for increasing mid-level clouds
associated with a weak wave dropping through WI and MI.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown