614
FXUS63 KIWX 141130
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect highs in the 60s today and Saturday with just a low
  (20%) chance for rain on Saturday.

- Highs return to the 40s for much of next week.

- Light rain is possible Monday night into Tuesday with a much
  better chance late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Warm front which brought a swath of midlevel clouds and a few
sprinkles overnight is now exiting the area. Anticipate mostly sunny
skies today with temps climbing into the low/mid 60s (save perhaps
far NE) given steady SW flow and WAA. Overnight lows tonight are
similarly mild as southwest surface winds and cloud cover both
increase through the night. Many locations may remain in the 50s
overnight with mid/upper 40s in the far NE. The next upper level jet
streak and associated midlevel trough will dig into the Great Lakes
on Sat. Our CWA remains in an unfavorable location for precip with
better CVA and left exit jet dynamics passing just to the NE.
However, as has been the case several times in the last few weeks,
modest low level moisture convergence may be just enough to touch
off an isolated, light shower, especially north of US-30. Have
therefore kept a fairly broad 20 PoP on Sat but most places will
likely remain dry. Temps return to seasonal reality on Sun with
highs in the 40s and lows around 30F. Abundant dry/stable air and
limited fetch will prevent any lake effect precip in our area though.

The next system to watch will be the upper low presently spinning
off the northern California coast. After wobbling around the
Southwest CONUS a bit, it will eject eastward and get sheared out as
it enters highly confluent flow over the Ohio Valley. Still, some
modest CVA and low level convergence/fgen will likely bring a swath
of precip Mon night into Tue with the best chances south of US-30.
Confidence is low however as deterministic and ensemble guidance
still showing some important differences in timing and track. Have a
mention of freezing rain in the NE zones Mon night given surface wet
bulbs well into the 20s. Some light/brief freezing rain can`t be
ruled out at the onset of the event but suspect anywhere that is
cold enough for ice will likely be dry enough for no precip (and
vice versa). Will continue to keep an eye on this period though.

A similar, albeit stronger, system then ejects out of the southwest
late next week. This one appears to take a more southern track which
allows for less shearing and much better moisture return. Rain is
likely at some point late next week though details are unclear this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

A low pressure system and associated cold front approach the
area late in this TAF period. Southwest wind and the low-level
jet strengthen early Saturday morning with a marginal LLWS
concern (25035kt at 2kFT). Ceilings will gradually decline as
well, with the in-house blend indicating a 30% probability of
MVFR ceilings. Moisture appears quite shallow through this TAF
period, with a deeper moisture column emerging thereafter. Thus,
low confidence in any MVFR ceilings at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Brown