446
FXUS63 KIWX 240932
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
532 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a moderate swim risk for Lake MI beaches along the
  Berrien Co, MI shoreline today. Breaking waves of 2-3 feet and
  currents are expected. See the latest beach forecast for
  details.

- Quiet weather through Tuesday night, with highs in the 70s,
  low 80s. Lows overnight in the 50s.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms (30-60 percent) return
  Wednesday and persist into Thursday. There is a marginal risk
  for strong-severe storms for portions of the area late
  Wednesday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large
  hail the main threat. Confidence is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 525 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Quiet weather-wise today into Tuesday night/Wed AM, with partly to
mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the 70s, low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Northwest flow will keep waves on Lake MI in the 2-3 ft range for
beaches along Berrien County, MI shoreline today. The higher waves
will be further north as winds strengthen slightly there this
afternoon. Conditions are still moderate swim risk this morning,
coming down from high risk last night. Waves are around 2 feet with
5-6 second periods.

The surface high pressure/upper level ridge in place today and Tue
will slowly drift eastward and break down through Wednesday, with an
upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes later in the day
Wednesday into Thursday night. This will bring a surface cold front
through our entire forecast area by Thursday morning. Have chances
for showers/storms increasing Wed into Thu AM from west to east,
peaking around 30-60 percent for now (best chances west late Wed
Aft/Eve). SPC added about 2/3rds of our CWA into a marginal risk for
strong to severe storms...generally northwest of a line from Marion,
IN up into Defiance, OH and onto Wauseon, OH.

Confidence is low at this time, especially further east mainly due
to later arrival time-approx. 5-8 pm EDT Wed in the far west, then
moving eastward as we lose daytime heating/instability. Mid level
lapse rates aren`t all that impressive either (bordering on 6 C/km).
Still, some of the guidance has mixed layer cape in the 1500-2500
J/Kg range further west in that earlier period, with about 25-35kts
of 0-6 km shear. Dewpoints also reach into the mid-upper 60s, low
70s. As they mentioned in their discussion, sufficient for
multicells and even a few supercells. Main threats are isolated
large hail and damaging wind gusts, but with low LCL`s and a bit of
low level wind shear (depends on the model), we could see tornado
potential. At any rate, a lot could change in the next couple of
days so will continue to monitor and refine the area of greatest
risk. high temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s.

Dry conditions return Friday and most of Saturday, then low end (20-
30 percent) rain and storm chances are possible Sat night into
Monday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the terminals through
the period, with mainly scattered clouds around 4-6kft. Could
see some west-northwest wind gusts up to around 20 knots this
afternoon, otherwise winds will be light (and variable/near calm
overnight/early this AM). With light winds/mostly clear skies
overnight we could see some BR/FG development (mainly at KSBN
this AM, KFWA tomorrow morning). Left out of the KSBN TAF for
this morning as much of guidance has visibility drops around 6SM
or greater. At KFWA, it`s possible we see IFR/LIFR conditions
closer to 8-12Z Tue AM. Have MVFR visibility for now (4SM BR)
given favorable conditions.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD