141
FXUS63 KIWX 221009
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
609 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (30-50 percent)for showers and thunderstorms today. A
  few strong storms are possible east of Interstate 69 this
  afternoon and evening.

- Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake MI beaches
  along Berrien Co, MI and La Porte County, IN this weekend.
  Dangerous waves and currents are expected. Monitor the beach
  forecast for updates.

- Dry conditions return Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon.
  Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cold front extending from low pressure over MI is draped across
our CWA from Three Rivers, MI down into White County, IN. Showers
and storms have formed along this boundary, with one stronger storm
near Wabash/Whitley/Kosciusko County lines as of this writing. The
front will drift eastward through the afternoon, with a second
shortwave/trough moving in behind it. This will lead to additional
storms in NW OH this afternoon/eve as we destabilize. Otherwise,
highs will be in the 70s, low 80s with gusty northwest winds.

The surface low/low aloft sinks into southern Ontario by Sun Eve/Mon
Am, with our area in persistent northwest flow. There are low
chances for showers and storms (20-35 percent) on Sunday before we
are trapped beneath the upper level ridge. Dry conditions persist
into Wednesday afternoon before another broad trough encompasses the
upper Great Lakes Wed eve into next Saturday.

Northwest flow of 15-20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots on
Lake MI through the next couple of days will build waves to 3 to 6
feet today into Sunday, with dangerous currents possible. Maintained
the going beach hazards statement, and extended the small craft
advisory.  There may be a lull in the wave/wind activity later
tonight before waves climb up again on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Expect predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions at the terminals,
with quick periods of IFR possible. A cold front will pass from
west to east through the period, with potential for showers,
storms, and BR/Fog development. So far this evening has been
fairly quiet with respect to t-storm activity along the cold
front just west of Lake MI. Have tempos in for any
showers/storms and 3-5SM BR, first at KSBN then at KFWA. MVFR
ceilings move in behind the front and then eventually break to
VFR by mid-late afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through
     Sunday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Sunday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT
     Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...MCD