987
FXUS63 KIWX 190520
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1220 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions expected over the next
  several days.

- Another system passes south of the forecast area beginning
  Thursday through Saturday afternoon bringing increased chances
  of rain showers. At this time precipitation totals look to
  again be on the light side with the system pushing further
  south in recent model runs.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend into the
  beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Today`s disturbance will continue to move eastward tonight bringing
an end to the light rain showers and possibly a bit of drizzle
especially south of US-30 by early morning Wednesday with some
drier air pushing southward into the area this evening.
However, with a more zonal flow in the wake of this system
cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions should continue over the next
several days. This will also keep high temperatures pretty
stable and seasonable through the beginning of next week with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Another system originating from Baja of California will move
northeastward across Texas into the Ohio River Valley. This will
increase chances of rain showers for our area beginning Thursday
afternoon into  There is a bit uncertainty to the exact track
of the system but latest guidance does bring it south of our
CWA. This would help to keep precipitation in the liquid form
and limit the rainfall amounts. So will need to keep an eye on
the exact track as the further south it goes the less rainfall
we would see.

Looking well ahead for late next week there are indications of
a much colder airmass to move into the area for the holiday.
This may include some snowfall however with more than a week
away will need to continue to monitor for that potential in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

A low-level inversion looks to lock in moisture and IFR to MVFR
ceilings. Satellite shows a corridor of MVFR ceilings advancing
south through Michigan. This appears to be on the trailing edge
of the departing upper-level low swirling into Pennsylvania.
Therefore, high confidence that KSBN sees improvement to MVFR
ceilings by 12z, perhaps sooner. Such improvement is less clear
at KFWA with their proximity farther south. Late in this TAF
period, not enough confidence in the forecast to improve
ceilings beyond the existing BKN025 as the 850-mb inversion
remains in place.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Brown