003
FXUS63 KIWX 140738
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
338 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog in the east will lift this morning.

- Highs in the 70s are expected today and again Fri into Sat
  with a brief dip into the 60s for Wed and Thu.

- Confidence in at least some needed rainfall is increasing Sat
  afternoon into Sat night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Clouds along/ahead of a diffuse front were impacting a large
part of the area, which has been limiting fog development this
far. A few locations in NW Ohio/far NE Indiana are hinting at
some development but confidence in widespread impacts is lower
than past days. Minor changes to grids overnight to limit the
mention of areas of fog and will hold off on any sort of
headlines.

Focus then shifts to minimal precip chances late tonight as mid
level forcing arrives from the north and west. Models continue to
bring in at least widely scattered showers, maybe as far south as US-
6. Although forcing is decent, worried that lower levels may be too
dry to allow much, if any measurable precip despite models showing
pockets of up to a tenth of an inch closer to Lake MI. Will maintain
slgt chc to chc pops between 6 and 12Z Wed, but even if it does make
it in, there will be no impacts to the dry conditions across the
area. The front will usher in a brief return to normal temperatures
in the mid 60s for Wednesday and Thursday before upper level heights
increase once again. Unlike the past several weeks, a strong
upstream trough will edge east and allow at least some low level
moisture return, which should be in place as several disturbances
move NE out of the trough. While timing and strength details are
still somewhat murky signs seem to point towards a decent chance of
needed rainfall from showers and some thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Sat night. Amounts vary, as would be expected, with
widespread 0.5 to 1" in some models and multiple rounds of precip
bringing several inches to some areas. The strength of the system
and overall wind fields could allow for breezy conditions ahead of
and especially behind the system, with a push of even colder, albeit
brief, air. Plenty of time to sort things out.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the TAF Sites, with
KFWA potentially dropping to MVFR between 9-13z. It`s possible
KSBN drops to high end MVFR once clouds clear towards morning,
but initial cloud cover may limit radiational cooling. Dewpoints
are much lower in the west initially as well--it`s unclear how
far the moisture off the lower lakes advects in. Left out of TAF
given low confidence.

KFWA may drop to MVFR between 9-13z, though much of the
guidance that brings visibility down have greatly underestimated
the current cloud cover so I`m skeptical. If we see flow off
the lower lakes like last night we may have a chance for fog
below MVFR, especially if it times with clearing cloud cover.
Otherwise, radiational cooling will be limited.

Otherwise, we could get a few showers or sprinkles at KSBN just
beyond the TAF period tomorrow night. Light and variable winds
will strengthen out of the N-NE through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili