199
FXUS64 KJAN 151111
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will continue during the late
  morning and afternoon hours today and Wednesday, mainly over the
  western half of the area. Heat danger will decrease later this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Through Wednesday: The heat wave continues as strong mid/upper
ridging builds across the region. High temperatures will again
approach the triple digits in many areas today and tomorrow, with
high temp records in jeopardy at multiple local climate sites.
One notable difference from recent days is a shift to easterly low
level flow, gradually bringing a drier airmass into the area.
This will yield lower heat indices across a portion of east
central MS today and for most areas east of I-55 on Wednesday. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect today for all other areas, and
another may be needed tomorrow, though likely for a smaller area
than today. With deep layer moisture becoming more limited to the
southern and western portions of the area, that is the region
where diurnal convection will be more likely today - south/west
MS, northeast LA, and southeast AR. By tomorrow, the focus will be
even more limited to south MS and central LA. A few of these
storms could produce locally strong wind gusts.

Thursday through next Tuesday: A drier airmass will continue to
shift into the area Thursday into Friday. This airmass will still
support hot days, with temps still approaching the triple digits
in the ArkLaMiss Delta through Saturday. But with dewpoints in
the 60s, mixing down into the 50s at times, heat stress will
significantly decrease through the end of the week. Morning temps
will also dip into the 60s at times in many areas late this week.
Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again this weekend
into early next week, with returning chances for diurnal
convection each day. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Patchy fog is ongoing in a few areas, but it will mix out shortly
after sunrise. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TS are possible mainly
across south/west MS, northeast LA, and AR this afternoon,
resulting in brief visby/ceiling reductions and gusty winds.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with
light wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  74  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      99  74  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     97  74  95  71 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   97  74  94  68 /  10   0  10   0
Natchez       96  74  95  71 /  20   0  10   0
Greenville    99  75  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     99  75  98  70 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL