916
FXUS64 KJAN 130624
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
124 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into
   this new week.

 - Chances for rain or storms will return to the forecast area on
   Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

High pressure will remain in control this week as an omega block
pattern takes shape across the CONUS.  As such, dry conditions will
promote greater diurnal ranges, with above normal high temperatures
persisting through the week, and cooler than normal lows. Fire risk
is non zero, though marginal, with RH generally in the 28-35 range.
Winds are light, but will continue to monitor conditions and will
post a graphic if necessary.

Later in the week, as southern trajectories become established,
moisture will begin to increase ahead of a low pressure system and
attendant surface cold front. At this time, guidance is in good
agreement that the ridge holds strong for the lead wave, deflecting
to the north. It is the second wave that looks to be a weather maker
for us, reflected by an increase in rain/storm chances (30-50%).
There is, however, some uncertainty in the evolution exists at this
time. In the wake of this system, dry weather returns with weak
ridging taking hold again. A wavier pattern appears evident going
forward and should supply intermittent rain chances. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions and light winds generally from the north at less than
10 kts should prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Some
patchy BR cannot be ruled out before 13Z today, but confidence in
visibility restrictions was too low to mention at any site. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      85  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     86  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   88  56  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       86  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     86  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/NF