450
FXUS64 KJAN 291134
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
634 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The primary impact concern is a flash flooding threat this
morning over central/southern portions of the forecast area,
including a more immediate flash flood concern in the Jackson
metro area. Beyond this morning, no significant weather impacts
are expected as we go through the weekend and most of next week.

Morning analyses reveal an impressively moist and precip-efficient
airmass with precipitable water exceeding 2.2 inches and H850
temperature near 16 deg C. Equally impressive frontal ascent (at
least by August standards) is supporting widespread rainfall and
locally heavy rainfall for locastions roughly along/south of the
I-20 corridor. Of particular interest is a slow-moving MCV
showing up on radar over Warren/Hinds Counties. There is locally
strong ascent with this that is supporting intense rainfall rates
exceeding 2" in/hr, and as this feature moves east, it will carry
a flash flood threat, especially in the Jackson/Madison area until
around daybreak. Will keep a flood threat graphic going through
mainly this morning.

Otherwise, compared to this time yesterday, the forecast is a lot
more straight-forward with less uncertainty as an unseasonably
deep and persistent eastern CONUS longwave trough locks in an
unsettled frontal zone in our region and becomes our primary
weather influence. Drier air pushing southward behind the current
system will bring an end to most thunderstorm and heavy rain
concerns this morning, but rain chances will continue through the
weekend, especially for southern portions of the area as
additional weak perturbations potentially move along/north of the
surface front.

Seasonably warm weather with low end rain chances can be expected
as we move into the first week of September, and it is possible
that a cooler surge of air may move in late next week with lows in
the 50s more probable for much of the area. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Local radar scans are showing a line of numerous SHRA and scattered
TSRA moving southward across south MS. Multiple TAF sites are
reporting a mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings due to a low
stratus cloud deck. Ceilings will remain low through the whole TAF
period until 19Z Friday afternoon. By 20Z Friday, several sites
should start to see visibilities improve to a mixture of VFR and
MVFR. MVFR/VFR conditions will remain through 03Z Saturday. After
04Z Saturday, multiple TAF sites will see mostly a mixture of
MVFR/IFR along with potential LIFR ceilings due to a low stratus
cloud deck and numerous SHRA. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  67  86  67 /  90  40  50  20
Meridian      75  66  85  65 /  80  50  50  20
Vicksburg     78  67  86  67 /  90  30  40  20
Hattiesburg   82  70  87  69 /  80  60  70  20
Natchez       80  69  84  68 /  80  40  50  20
Greenville    80  64  88  65 /  50  10  20  10
Greenwood     80  64  89  65 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/CR