925
FXUS64 KJAN 180252 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
952 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The last of the day`s convection was noted dissipating over
Covington county. Although there is still a shortwave trough axis
overhead and a moist airmass in place, No significant
redevelopment is anticipated tonight. Much of the eastern half of
the CWA has been rain-cooled but forecast morning lows are still
on track. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Rest of today...

Active morning continues with scattered convective coverage
increasing across the region. Shortwave trough axis extends across
the Lower to Mid MS Valley, with increased ascent, southwesterly low-
level jet and deep moisture (1.7 to +2 inches) across the Gulf Coast
region. This is leading to an early start to convective initiation
(CI) across the area, with early morning coverage across the MS
River corridor and LA Delta due to increased inflow/moisture
convergence and light east-northeast backbuilding vectors (less than
10kts). This led to some training and flash flooding in these areas.
This is waning, with most of the Theta E advection/convergence along
and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. This is where there
resides just enough flow for some marginally severe convection
generally along and east of a line from Natchez to Yazoo City to
Grenada. Gusty winds will be the main threat and small hail can`t be
ruled out. "Marginal" from SPC will be added to local HWO graphics
with minor adjustments in areal coverage to the west to southwest.
Sensible weather will be seasonable to slightly less, in northeast
MS (84-92F), with scattered to widespread rain coverage this
afternoon (55-90%), with highest coverage east of the MS River
corridor. Updates are out. /DC/

Wednesday through Thursday: The upper level ridging pattern will
continue through Thursday, our area remains sandwiched in a H5
trough with ridging on either side. This will allow a series of
disturbances to pass through the area through Thursday before the
pattern looks to break down. This pattern will support continued
rain chances, primarily in the form of isolated to scattered
convection possible during the morning hours, with heavier more
widespread diurnally driven convection during the afternoon and
evening. Some storms could be strong or severe with the main threats
being damaging wind gusts and hail. In addition with PWat values
exceeding 1.5 inches, combined with slow moving, training storms
with heavy downpours, may lead to localized flash flooding
especially in urban or flood prone areas.

Friday through Next Week: The pattern begins to shift as an upper
level trough swings through the Midwest creating a southwestern
ridging pattern. This pattern will dominate into early next week.
Diurnally driven convection will persist, with the greatest coverage
and intensity focused closer to the Gulf Coast. In addition the
combination of rising temperatures and humidity will steadily
increase the risk for heat stress. Therefore, the risk for heat
related impacts has been increased to an "Elevated" threat areawide
in the GHWO. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of the area
late this week into early next week. Please remember to make sure
friends,relatives and pets have a cooler location to spend the
afternoon hours and warm overnight hours./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The TSRA activity was dissipating rapidly on local radars and will
not affect the TAF sites. VFR conditions wl prevail through 11Z.
After 11Z MVFR cigs will be psbl until after 16Z. TSRA will be
limited to the se TAF sites Wed aftn and VFR conditions wl
prevail through the end of the TAF period away from any TSRA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  91  73  91 /  10  30  10  60
Meridian      72  91  72  91 /  10  50  10  60
Vicksburg     74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  50
Hattiesburg   74  93  74  94 /  10  60  10  70
Natchez       73  89  74  90 /  10  30  10  50
Greenville    74  90  73  89 /  10  10  40  60
Greenwood     74  92  73  88 /  10  20  40  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP/22