200
FXUS64 KJAN 170939
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
439 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The synoptic upper-level pattern continues to feature a weakness
between two ridges across the country. Ridges centered over the
Desert Southwest and off the US East Coast will allow for
shortwave troughs to pass through our region through around
Thursday. Fairly decent rain chances focused mainly in the
afternoon hours through that time will be widespread. And as seen
early this morning, the flow associated with these disturbances is
enough to sustain some chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
soupy air mass overnight. PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches will
be supportive of heavy downpours with slow moving storms, and
localized flash flooding cannot be entirely ruled out especially
if heavier rain falls over more developed areas.

Friday onward, the pattern will shift with the southwestern ridge
translating east over the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.
This will push best rain chances closer to the Gulf Coast, but
afternoon showers and storms remain possible into early next week.
The ridge aloft and continued warm, moist advection in the low
levels will push afternoon heat index values closer to or over 105
degrees than in recent days. Therefore will maintain the
"Elevated" threat for dangerous heat conditions across portions of
our area Friday into the weekend. Even in the lead-up, a few
spots of near-105 heat index can be expected. Heat Advisories may
be needed for portions of the area late this week into early next
week. Please remember to make sure friends and relatives have a
cooler location to spend the afternoon hours and warm overnight
hours. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mostly VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites tonight, but expect an
increase in low clouds and a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over
the next few hours. Showers will continue across the area
overnight also. Expect improving ceilings after 14-15Z, but
showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the late
morning into the afternoon hours and this will bring occasional
MVFR/IFR conditions once again. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  73  91  74 /  80  10  30  10
Meridian      88  71  91  73 /  80  10  50  10
Vicksburg     90  73  91  75 /  60  10  20  10
Hattiesburg   90  74  92  74 /  80  10  70  10
Natchez       88  73  90  73 /  60  10  40  10
Greenville    88  73  91  75 /  60  10  10  30
Greenwood     88  73  91  75 /  80  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/NF/15