022
FXUS64 KJAN 142026
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels of heat stress are expected during the late
  morning and afternoon hours early this week. Heat danger will
  begin to decrease later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Through Tuesday: Through Monday: Storms have once again developed
with strong daytime heating and are mainly focused over the
western half of the area. A favorable environment for microbursts
with vertical totals near 26 deg C and DCAPE near 1500 j/kg is
supporting a few intense storms with strong wind gusts, and
wouldn`t rule out a marginally severe microburst or two. There
are currently numerous outflow boundaries supporting greater storm
coverage as well, and this storm threat should continue to the
early evening hours. The storm threat for Tuesday should less
quite a bit and be confined to far southern portions of the area.
Otherwise, dangerous heat continues to be the primary concern,
and the heat advisory was extended to Tuesday, although it was
trimmed a bit from today`s more expansive area. /EC/

Wednesday through next Monday: Continuing easterly flow will
usher in a relatively drier airmass through the end of the work
week. This airmass will still support hot days, with temps still
approaching the triple digits in the ArkLaMiss Delta. But with
dewpoints dropping into 60s and perhaps the 50s, heat stress will
become less of a concern through the end of the week. It is still
possible a heat advisory may be needed for some areas mainly west
of I-55 on Wednesday, but heat related alerts are unlikely for the
remainder of the week. While days will still be quite warm with
above normal temps, mornings will see temps dipping into the 60s
in many areas. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again
this weekend, with returning potential for diurnal convection each
day. Though it will still be warm, high temps are expected to
regress closer to seasonal normals around the beginning of next
week. /DL/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR flight conditions with southerly winds near 5 kts will prevail
through the period. Isolated showers/storms are expected this
afternoon, ending after sunset. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  97  74  95 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      73  99  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     74  97  74  96 /  10  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  97  74  94 /   0  10  10   0
Natchez       74  97  74  96 /  10  20   0  10
Greenville    75  99  75  99 /  10  10   0   0
Greenwood     73  99  75  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-
     025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/DL/SW