001
FXUS64 KJAN 131128 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
628 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels of heat stress are expected during the late
  morning and afternoon hours each day over the first half of this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Through Tuesday: Heat is becoming the main forecast focus as
mid/upper ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. High temperatures over the next few days
will begin to reach the upper 90s across the area to near 100
across the ArkLaMiss Delta. Heat indices will reach the 105-110F
range especially over the western half of the area, thus a heat
advisory is in effect today for these areas. Additional
advisories may be needed beyond today.

While the main upper trough axis that helped organize convection
across northern portions of the area on Saturday has begun to
shift east, remnants of this feature remain across central/
southern sections of the forecast area and this is the most
likely focus for diurnal development later today. A few of these
storms could again produce strong wind gusts. By Monday and
Tuesday, convective coverage is expected to be more isolated as
the ridge strengthens.

Wednesday through next Sunday: Low level flow will become more
easterly over the latter half of the week, ushering in a
relatively drier airmass, especially by Thursday. This airmass
will still support hot days, but with dewpoints dropping into 60s
and perhaps the 50s, this will notably reduce heat stress danger
through the end of the week. While days will still be relatively
warm, mornings will see temps dipping into the 60s more often
across much of the area. Deep layer moisture will begin to
increase again around Friday into Saturday, with returning
potential for diurnal convection each day.

Long range guidance has been hinting at a potential shift the
following week toward temps closer to daily normals, with perhaps
highs only in the 80s and lows in the 60s in some areas...not a
real taste of fall, but perhaps finally an end to the frequent
spells of excessive heat? We`re keeping our fingers crossed, stay
tuned. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. However, aftn
TSRA may come in vcty of the northern and southwest TAF sites
while scattered TSRA wl be psbl cntrl and east. The TSRA my
briefly result in lower flight restrictions. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       96  73  97  72 /  30  10  10   0
Meridian      97  72  99  72 /  30   0   0   0
Vicksburg     96  74  97  73 /  30   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   95  73  97  72 /  40   0  10   0
Natchez       96  74  96  73 /  20  10  20   0
Greenville    98  74 100  74 /  20  10  10   0
Greenwood     98  73 100  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-
     059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

/DL/22