340
FXUS64 KJAN 151533 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1033 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Similar to Saturday morning, early convection was noted on local
radars across our northern zones. This activity was initiating
along a weak stalled boundary. Also similar to Saturday morning,
regional radars showed convection firing to our southwest. The
convection in our north will last into early afternoon but by mid
afternoon, daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to
expanding coverage of convection from the southwest to the
northeast. The morning JAN sounding had a PWAT near two inches and
with lower lapse rates than on Saturday. The chance for rain was
adjusted in timing and area but the forecast remains on track.
/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Through The Next Week...

No shift in the model trends means that there hasn`t been much of a
change to the forecast since yesterday. The weather will remain
essentially the same over the next 7 days: Daytime sporadic showers
and thunderstorms forming in the mid morning, steadily building in
both coverage and intensity by mid afternoon and tapering off
through the waning daylight hours, finally dissipating an hour or
two after sunset.

Rain totals both from singular storms, and for the overarching week
remain pretty low (<2in/7days) so there are no concerns for flash
flooding. Some rivers remain elevated from last week`s rises so we
can expect these rivers to hover around the same levels, with no
significant relief in sight.

The big question will be the max expected intensity for these
storms, and over the weekend and into the early week the environment
does not support any strong organization and thus wind and hail will
remain below severe thresholds. Mid to late week it does look like
the overall synoptic pattern begins to sharpen and organize, and
this looks to be the timeframe with the highest probability for
severe storms. Since that`s still quite a few days out we`re not a
the point where our confidence is high enough regarding
timing/coverage to really elucidate on this further.

We will continue to monitor any shifts in the upper level pattern,
and attendant resolution shifts in order to dial in the threats,
if any,for next week.

Other than that, hot and humid days are in store with the heat index
steadily climbing day to day, Some sites should break into the
triple digit HIs by mid week, which could trigger some products
communicating heat danger./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this morning
and this will continue through 14-15Z. Expect all sites to become
VFR after 15Z and continue through the period, but scattered
showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this
afternoon across much of the area, which will bring occasional
MVFR/IFR conditions to sites into this evening. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  90  73 /  70  30  70  30
Meridian      92  71  91  72 /  70  30  80  30
Vicksburg     90  73  89  74 /  60  30  70  20
Hattiesburg   93  73  93  74 /  70  20  80  20
Natchez       89  73  89  74 /  60  20  70  20
Greenville    89  72  85  73 /  80  50  80  20
Greenwood     89  72  86  73 /  80  50  90  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/OAJ/15