019
FXUS64 KJAN 241954
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
154 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system with severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
    rain remains a concern late this evening through Tuesday
    afternoon.

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and
    continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A few adjustments were made to the severe wx graphic for tonight
and Tuesday. In coordination with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC),
the "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) has been expanded further east to
include areas along and east of the I-55 corridor. Portions of east
and southeast MS have been upgraded to a "Slight" risk for Tuesday
morning/Tuesday evening. Outside of those minor adjustments, the
overall forecast for the near term period remains relatively on
track. Please see the previous forecast discussion down below for
more information:

Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Strong cold core is moving out of Intermountain West in CO into the
Central Plains in KS to OK border, with strong vorticity advection
swinging southward across the Red River Valley to south-central TX.
Increased upper jet will overspread the Plains, Mid MS Valley to OH
Valley, with favorable upper jet dynamics. Surface low and frontal
system will swing eastward. The strongest forcing will remain well
off to the north into the Ozarks to Mid MS to OH Valleys. However,
there will be enough forcing from a secondary spoke of energy over
central TX, low level jet (35kts to 45kts) and frontal convergence
to spark increased rain and storm coverage. The severe thunderstorm
potential will ramp up after 6PM to 8PM this evening and last
through Tuesday morning around 5AM. Convective allowing models
(CAMs) from this afternoon are still highlighting a squall line or
QLCS propagating from southwest to northeast across the area. There
could also be discrete supercell development potential a touch
earlier ahead of the forced squall line, which could have all modes
of severe weather possible in these severe storms. The QLCS will be
the main focus, with the best severe potential in the northwest
Delta, continuing northeast towards the Golden Triangle and Natchez
Trace corridor around midnight to 1AM and persisting through around
5AM to the southeast.

Strong mean southwesterly shear (40-65kts) will set up but remain
mostly line-parallel. Strong moist advection will drive dewpoints
back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of Interstate
20. With strong southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse rates,
favorable thermo (around 6C mid level lapse rates, 25 to 28C
vertical totals and 300 J/kg to 700 J/kg MLCAPE), severe threat and
advertisement in HWO of Slight/Marginal risk remains warranted.
Along the stronger southern spoke of energy, there will be
sufficient height falls for more organized convective line in the
extreme northwest Delta and northeast bowing segments remain a
concern for orthogonal bulk shear orientation and resultant
potential for damaging wind gusts of 60mph and tornadoes, with some
hail threat at the onset this evening. There will be a brief break
in activity, before more veered flow but frontal convergence could
get some strong to isolated severe activity going again. We made a
few changes to the severe graphic for Tuesday. Portions of the
"Marginal" risk from Kemper to Smith, Jasper to Jones, and
Lauderdale to Clarke have been upgraded to a "Slight" risk in
coordination with SPC. Timing of this still looks to be 9AM to 5PM,
but ending as early as 3PM in east MS.

Strong cloud bearing layer flow (45-50kts in the 850-300mb layer),
PWs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches and 850mb Theta E around 330K favor
quick, locally heavy convective downpours. There is increased
confidence of heavy rainfall totals, as CAMs indicate a stripe of
training convection somewhere along and north of a line near the
Natchez Trace extending up into the Golden Triangle area. Some areas
could see a quick 3 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts, in a
short duration. Decided to add a hazard graphic for flash flooding
in these areas late tonight through early Tuesday morning. In
addition, surface low won`t be really deep but there will be some
pressure gradient (4mb) for some gusty gradient winds, at most
around 25mph gusts or a touch higher at times.

Seasonably warm conditions will be expected both today and Tuesday,
highs some 10F to 15F above (72F to 82F), while very seasonable
warmth Monday night, some 20F to 24F above (59F to 66F). Some record
warm lows are possible for sites along and north of Interstate 20.
/DC/CR/

Wednesday through next week Monday...

Rain chances will continue across our forecast area through around
daybreak Wednesday before a strong frontal passage brings a pattern
change. Quiet and seasonably cooler weather conditions, 5-8F below,
will occur across the southeast region late this week on
Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday) thanks to mean
northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1032mb sfc high propagating
southeastward across the area, and PW less than half inch. Model
consensus from both the GFS and the Euro are still showing Wednesday
night through Thursday night being the coldest periods with
nighttime temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A couple of areas
along and east of i-20 could see overnight lows drop to below
freezing Thursday night, with a light frost/freeze possible by late
Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. Quiet conditions will
continue through Friday evening as the 1032 sfc high begins to
propagate eastward towards the Carolinas.

Looking ahead into the weekend, future guidance is still
highlighting quite an active weather pattern developing over much of
the central CONUS. A major longwave trough axis is forecasted to set
over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong ridge builds up over
the East Coast. This will help place our CWA in favorable deep
southwest flow aloft for multiple rounds of showers and storms. At
the moment, global models are still showing increasing potential for
heavy rainfall to develop, with greater potential over the ArkLaMiss
Delta region. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next
several days. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dense fog will be possible again tonight, especially for PIB/HBG and
maybe MEI. There may be some patchy dense fog at other sites, ahead
of the heavy rain and thunderstorms. The main line of storms was
still a good bit west and may not impact GLH until around midnight
and continue spreading west through daybreak. Expecting MVFR-LIFR to
develop at all sites overnight and gradually improve on Tuesday. PIB/HBG
and maybe Meridian may not get thunderstorms until mid morning
Tuesday into the afternoon. The timing of the boundary may be a
little slower. Didn`t add any tempo or prob groups at this time
for wind forecasts, opted to wait for later forecasts to capture
how things develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  76  50  60 /  80  80  20   0
Meridian      60  78  51  63 /  50  80  40   0
Vicksburg     63  77  50  60 /  90  50  10   0
Hattiesburg   65  83  55  70 /  50  70  40  10
Natchez       64  78  52  63 /  90  70  10   0
Greenville    61  72  48  55 / 100  30   0   0
Greenwood     60  75  47  57 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/CR