749
FXUS64 KJAN 051139 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
639 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain at the base of a large nearly
stacked low centered over Ontario Canada through the period. A
shortwave rounding the base of this low will help send a cold front
south toward our CWA tonight. A surface ridge will continue to nose
back to the west across our CWA from the east. This low level south
to southwest flow will help to increase deep moisture across our
region ahead of the approaching cold front. Warmer than normal
temperatures this afternoon in the low to mid 90s will combine with
the high humidity to result in peak heat index values back above
100F. Locations along the Mississippi river may see peak heat index
values near 105F. This will be the warmest afternoon through the
next several days as the cold front will bring relief. Dry weather
is expected today but as we go into this evening, rain chances will
increase from the north. The main focus for any severe weather along
and ahead of the cold front is expected to be north of our CWA but
this evening there may still be enough instability to support an
isolated threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail to quarter
size along our Highway 82 corridor with the strongest storms. This
potential for severe weather is expected to wain toward midnight.
Morning lows will be above normal over most of our CWA but provided
the cold front pushes into our delta region prior to sunrise,
temperatures there may bottom out near normal. /22/

Saturday through next Thursday...A cold front will be in the process
of dropping southeast through the forecast area as day breaks on
Saturday.  This will result in ongoing scattered showers and storms
moving through the area during the morning and afternoon hours as
the front moves through.  High pressure will build into the region
in the wake of the front as it clears the CWA late in the afternoon.
This will advect some slightly cooler drier air into the region.
Highs will range from around 80 across the Delta to the lower 90s
across the Pine Belt region.  Some high clouds will linger across
the area during the overnight hours, as lows range from the lower
60s to around 70.

Slightly cooler conditions and drier air will continuing advecting
south into the CWA Sunday into Sunday night under north to northeast
flow. Overall, quiet weather with slightly below normal late summer
conditions will exist across the CWA Sunday through Monday night.
Highs during this time will struggle to get out of the 80s, as lows
both Sunday and Monday nights range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Quiet weather will persist through the remainder of the forecast
period, Tuesday through Thursday.  Mid/upper level troughing will
slowly slide east through Thursday, allowing ridging aloft to
gradually build into the region from the west.  Temperatures will
begin moderating up a bit each day beginning Tuesday and continuing
through Thursday.  Some small rain chances will creep back into the
forecast late in period, but currently look confined to mainly
Southeast Mississippi, where a little better moisture looks to
reside. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the 03Z Saturday.
There is a low chance of vcty TSRA by 03Z Saturday across the
northern TAF sites that may bring lower conditions. This activity
will be ahead of a cold front that will move across the northern
TAF sites by 09Z and the cntrl TAF sites by 12Z bringing a wind
shift and -RA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  72  87  67 /   0  30  40  10
Meridian      94  71  90  66 /   0  10  30  10
Vicksburg     94  71  84  66 /   0  40  40  10
Hattiesburg   95  72  93  70 /   0   0  20  10
Natchez       93  72  87  67 /   0  20  30  10
Greenville    95  67  81  62 /   0  50  30  10
Greenwood     96  70  84  63 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/19/22