970
FXUS64 KJAN 241135
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
535 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dense fog ongoing across the area this morning

  - A storm system with severe thunderstorms and locally heavy
    rain remains a concern late this evening through Tuesday
    afternoon

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and
    continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

This week into next weekend...

Today: Synoptic analysis and water vapor imagery indicate
shortwave ridging building across the region. Drier air persists
in the region this morning (PWs around 0.6 inches and dewpoints
in the 46F to 50F range). 1024mb sfc high is situated across the
OH Valley and expansive southward into the Gulf Coast states. Main
concerns first are dense fog this morning. HREF dense fog probs
indicate nearly 40 to 60 percent, with dense fog being observed in
Pine Belt and expanding northward along the Pearl River Valley.
Based on this, added a hazard graphic for dense fog, with
Elevated along and south of Interstate 20 and Limited to the
north. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from Copiah to Clarke,
Lincoln to Jones and Marion to Forrest in MS. This should lift
around 9AM.

Strong cold core is moving out of Intermountain West in CO into
the Central Plains in KS to OK border, with strong vorticity
advection swinging southward across the Red River Valley to south-
central TX. Increased upper jet will overspread the Plains, Mid MS
Valley to OH Valley, with favorable upper jet dynamics. Surface
low and frontal system will swing eastward. The strongest forcing
will remain well off to the north into the Ozarks to Mid MS to OH
Valleys. However, there will be enough forcing from a secondary
spoke of energy over central TX, low level jet (35kts to 45kts)
and frontal convergence to spark increased rain and storm
coverage. The onset of rain will be as early as just after noon
in the extreme northwest Delta and storms by mid-afternoon. The
severe thunderstorm potential will ramp up after 6PM to 8PM this
evening and last through Tuesday morning around 5AM. Convective
allowing models (CAMs) are coming in focus, with a forced squall
line or QLCS propagating from southwest to northeast across the
area. There could also be discrete supercell development potential
a touch earlier ahead of the forced squall line, which could have
all modes of severe weather possible in these severe storms. The
QLCS will be the main focus, with the best severe potential in the
northwest Delta, continuing northeast towards the Golden Triangle
and Natchez Trace corridor around midnight to 1AM and persisting
through around 5AM to the southeast. Strong mean southwesterly
shear (40-65kts) will set up but remain mostly line-parallel.
Strong moist advection will drive dewpoints back up into the
64-68F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With strong
southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse rates, favorable thermo
(around 6C mid level lapse rates, 25 to 28C vertical totals and
300 J/kg to 700 J/kg MLCAPE), severe threat and advertisement in
HWO of Slight/Marginal risk remains warranted. Along the stronger
southern spoke of energy, there will be sufficient height falls
for more organized convective line in the extreme northwest Delta
and northeast bowing segments remain a concern for orthogonal bulk
shear orientation and resultant potential for damaging wind gusts
of 60mph and tornadoes, with some hail threat at the onset this
evening. There will be a brief break in activity, before more
veered flow but frontal convergence could get some strong to
isolated severe activity going again. Timing of this would be from
9AM to 5PM, but ending as early as 3PM in east MS.

Strong cloud bearing layer flow (45-50kts in the 850-300mb
layer), PWs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches and 850mb Theta E around 330K
favor quick, locally heavy convective downpours. There is
increased confidence of heavy rainfall totals, as CAMs indicate a
stripe of training convection somewhere along and north of a line
near the Natchez Trace extending up into the Golden Triangle
area. Some areas could see a quick 3 to 4 inches, with locally
higher amounts, in a short duration. Decided to add a hazard
graphic for flash flooding in these areas late tonight through
early Tuesday morning. In addition, surface low won`t be really
deep but there will be some pressure gradient (4mb) for some gusty
gradient winds, at most around 25mph gusts or a touch higher at
times.

Seasonably warm conditions will be expected both today and
Tuesday, highs some 10F to 15F above (72F to 82F), while very
seasonable warmth Monday night, some 20F to 24F above (59F to
66F). Some record warm lows are possible for sites along and
north of Interstate 20.

This pattern favors rain chances through around daybreak
Wednesday before strong frontal passage brings a pattern change.
In the wake, mean northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1032mb surface
high and drier thermal profiles (PWs less than half inch) favor
dryness and seasonably cooler conditions, 5-8F below, into late
this week on Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday).
Low temperatures in the low 30s (possibly below freezing) to upper
30s are possible both Wednesday night through Thursday night,
with a light frost/freeze possible Thursday night. A more
amplified synoptic and surface reflection will take place into
next weekend. Relevant portion of previous long term discussion is
below. /DC/

Next weekend: It is definitely worth mentioning the day 7-8 period
for this forecast as quite an active weather pattern could develop
over much of the central CONUS by that time as a major longwave
trough sets up over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong
ridge builds up the East Coast, thus placing our area in favorable
deep southwest flow aloft for several rounds of showers and storms.
As of now, global models are showing increasing potential for
heavy rainfall to develop, especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta
region where it would be supported by the current La Nina. This is
just something to keep an eye on for the next few days. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low stratus and dense fog continue this morning with dense fog
advisory in effect for the southeast until 9AM this morning. VFR
will prevail through the day today, then this evening storms push
in from the west along with MVFR ceilings. In the wake of the
front, low stratus and fog could develop yet again tomorrow
morning./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  64  77  51 /  10  80  90  20
Meridian      77  60  78  52 /   0  60  90  50
Vicksburg     78  64  77  51 /  50  90  70  10
Hattiesburg   82  65  83  56 /   0  40  80  50
Natchez       80  64  78  52 /  40  80  80  20
Greenville    72  62  73  48 /  60  90  40  10
Greenwood     74  62  75  48 /  30  90  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ054>058-062>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DC/SAS20