724
FXUS64 KJAN 180025 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
725 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Updated POPs and weather into the overnight hours following the
latest radar trends and expected downstream motions of a current
cluster of storms in East Mississippi. Cluster should hold
together for a while longer as it moves NNW. Brief heavy downpours
and some thunder will accompany this activity, but most of the
remainder of the area should see only light rain through the
night. Rest of the forecast thinking remains on track. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Afternoon showers and storms will be diminishing overnight with rain
chances ending by midnight. Overnight lows will be seasonably warm
with deep layer moisture remaining in place and associated dewpoints
in the mid/upper 60s helping to support overnight lows in the lower
to middle 70s F. Remnant convective debris and high cirrus from a
tropical feature well to our south will likely result in skies
partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will remain light and generally out
of the south.

By Tuesday, an upper ridge centered near the southeastern CONUS
coast will be strengthening and beginning to retrograde, resulting
in markedly increased heights across the area. As the tropical wave
being monitored by the NHC in the Gulf of Mexico begins to slowly
drift west, deep layer moisture will consolidate in the western Gulf
while drier continental air spills westward into our area. This
combination of a drying low level environment with increasing
heights aloft will result in noticeable increases in temperatures
and a reduction in rain chances through the upcoming week.

Later This Week..

The pattern will remain rather stagnant locally through the week as
the deep layer ridge continues to strengthen and expand its
influence westward. 500 mb anomalies will likely range 7 to 10 dam
above climate normals by the weekend with some areas threatening
triple digits for afternoon highs. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out through this week, but coverage
will likely be quite sparse as PWs fall below 1.6 inches and
overall upper subsidence controls the synoptic pattern.

Triple digit temperatures will be possible and 96-99 F temperatures
likely across the area as we move into this weekend. Uncertainties
mostly concerning how much boundary layer moisture will remain which
will determine peak-heating dewpoints and therefor maximum apparent
temperatures will make excessive heat hazard forecasts challenging
but some heat-related outlook appears likely at some point. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of SHRA and TSRA moving north across eastern Mississippi to
start the TAF period could bring brief heavy rain and variable
flight conditions to a few of the TAF sites, but otherwise expect
VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Some low stratus
producing MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out with the increased
humidity following rainfall, but confidence was too mention to
mention in the TAFs at this time. Additional showers or storms
could impact mainly the KHEZ site after 15Z Tuesday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  73  91 /  60  10   0   0
Meridian      71  88  71  91 /  60   0   0   0
Vicksburg     73  87  73  91 /  40  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   72  88  73  92 /  60  20   0  10
Natchez       72  84  72  90 /  40  30  10  20
Greenville    74  89  73  92 /  40  10   0   0
Greenwood     73  88  73  92 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/LP/NF