440
FXUS64 KJAN 171907
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will continue the remainder of the week, but
  lower humidity should help to reduce heat stress, with dangerous
  levels of heat stress confined to along and northwest of the
  Natchez Trace.

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will build back in areawide this
  weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Through Friday: Continued hot and humid along with dry weather.
Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around
a large and anomalously stout mid level high centered over southeast
Arkansas. This large high will shift a little farther west through
Friday. Latest surface analysis had a >1022mb centered over the
southern Appalachians that will continue to ridge back across our
CWA through Friday. Together these features will maintain the well
above normal temperatures and dry weather across our CWA. Although
near record high temperatures are possible at Greenville and
Greenwood again Friday, drier air from the east will continue to
lower humidity and therefore help mitigate heat stress concerns.
Peak heat index values Friday will approach 105F over the western
and northern portions of the CWA with lower heat index values
elsewhere. /22/

Hot and dry will be the story through pretty much the entire rest of
the period as the ridge remains dominant. This will tend to suppress
convection while maintaining hot conditions. Multiple days of a
record breaking highs (99+) are likely, especially north of I-20
into the Delta. Heat looks to peak on Saturday when the 850 thermal
axis is maximized. A limited graphic will continue to be advertised
through early next week. Despite highs in the upper 90s and low
100s, mid 60s dewpoints will limit heat indices to around 100-105.
It is near heat advisory threshold however, so it is possible an
elevated may be introduced should the need arise.

A low pressure off the coast of Florida will be steered towards the
NE Gulf and that will help to weaken the ridge for a few days mid
next week. Rain is likely to remain scarce, but this weakness does
introduce low rain chances by the middle of next week east of I-55.
We will also see decreased heat during this time. Thereafter, the
ridge restrengthens and heights increase once again across the
region mid to late next week. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      68  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     69  96  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  95  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       68  96  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    73 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     70  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/22