091
FXUS64 KJAN 040613 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1213 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
  continuing into early Wednesday morning.

- Heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flash flooding in
  low-lying or urban areas into early Wednesday morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next
  week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Currently: light showers were noted on local radar along and west of
the Mississippi river. This activity was ahead of a band of showers
and thunderstorms that extended from eastern Arkansas back across
northwest Louisiana and east over northeast Texas. This band of
storms was nearly along a cold front emanating from a surface low
over the central Plains. Latest satellite imagery/RAP showed the
circulation around a closed low spinning over northeast Kansas and
eastern Nebraska. This closed low will continue lifting to the
northeast while taking the surface low with it. Thus the cold front
will drag into the CWA later this afternoon with the band of storms
preceding it. Nothing has changed in the previous thinking of the
potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms
mainly over our northwest and the previous forecast discussion
follows. /22/

Tonight through Monday: A departing upper-level shortwave ridge is
in the process of being replaced by a trough and deepening low
pressure system making its way into the central CONUS. The low
itself is expected to lift northeastward today from the Southern
High Plains to the Upper Midwest which should direct most forcing
north and west of our forecast area, but a spoke of the shortwave
energy pivoting overhead during the afternoon and evening shows at
least modest height falls over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Without
prolonged warm, moist advection in advance of this system`s cold
frontal passage, forecast instability is in the range of 500-1500
J/kg over northeast LA during the daylight hours tomorrow but
decreasing to around 400-700 J/kg as the front moves further east
into Mississippi after dark. There is a modest 40kts of deep-layer
shear expected across the front, but less favorable instability
suggests only low potential for pre-frontal convection to develop
into discreet supercells beyond northeast LA in the afternoon hours.
The primary hazards will be wind squalls with line segments into the
early morning hours and heavy rainfall rates. Weak tornadoes cannot
be ruled out. Heaviest rain rates could pose an isolated flash flood
threat in low-lying or urban areas, but the progressive movement of
the front should limit an organized flooding threat. The Marginal
severe storm risk remains in place for approximately the
northwestern half of the area, and the "Limited" flash flood threat
graphic continues to highlight about the northwestern third.

This weather should clear by Wednesday, but showers could linger in
the wake of the front across eastern Mississippi Wednesday morning.
The pattern will reinforce mostly dry weather Wednesday into early
next week. Building high pressure over the weekend will push
temperatures below normal across our forecast area. High
temperatures Saturday through next Monday should be mostly in the
mid to upper 60s or near 70 degrees, while overnight low from Friday
night onwards will dip into the 30s and 40s. Frost seems likely in
that time frame with any periods of particularly calm overnight
winds and mostly clear skies. Will continue to monitor trends, but
we are in the time of year where frost and light freeze are normal
and the growing season has ended already.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east across the
forecast area will bring periods of reduced visibility, variable
ceilings, and potentially gusty winds. Trends through 12Z however
are for prevailing MVFR to IFR ceilings at most sites before
westerly winds increase and bring drier air into the area. /NF/86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  50  79  51 /  20   0   0  10
Meridian      79  49  79  49 /  50   0   0   0
Vicksburg     75  47  78  49 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   82  53  83  53 /  50   0  10  20
Natchez       76  50  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
Greenville    72  47  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     73  46  75  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/LP/LP