053
FXUS64 KJAN 191751 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dense fog will impact our southeast again Thursday morning.

  - Chances will increase for showers and a few storms as we
    approach the weekend.

  - A more significant storm system could impact our area early
    next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect for the south this
morning was allowed to expire at 9AM but the fog was still lifting
over our southeast most zones. Visibilities were greater than a
half mile and will be greater than six statute miles by 10AM.
Clouds will slowly scatter by noon and allow temperatures to top
out well above normal again, in the lower 80s. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today through Saturday:

Advection fog is moving in to southern portions of the forecast
area early this morning, and there are a few locations observing
dense fog in the area roughly along and south of the Hwy 84
corridor. Dense fog should not develop much farther north, and it
is expected to dissipate as we go into mid morning. Given the
persistent, humid weather pattern, additional fog should form in
about the same area Thursday morning, with focus mainly on
southern and eastern MS. /EC/

Strong riding over the central Gulf will be suppressed somewhat
as a filling shortwave trough ejects across the Southern US
Friday. In advance of the wave, a few rain showers can`t be ruled
out around the periphery of the ridge. Otherwise expect the warm
and rain-free conditions to continue into Thursday night. A low
pressure system associated with the approaching disturbance will
push a cold front through the region late Thursday night through
Friday. Modest instability and wind shear may exist in the warm
sector out ahead of the cold front, and some stronger
thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out in the air mass.
Forcing with the front will be decreasing, and resulting low-level
flow will be more boundary-parallel. Therefore there is no
widespread threat for severe thunderstorms expected at this time.
Showers or a few storms may linger in our area on Saturday as the
front stalls out.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Flow aloft will amplify for early next week as another low digs over
the Desert Southwest and slowly lifts eastward. Moisture recovery
will begin along the TX Gulf Coast during this early week time
frame, and by Tuesday, the low could be sliding across the South
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms in the region.
It`s too far out to have certainty with this type of system in this
kind of weather pattern, but that will be our next target to monitor
for any impacts in our region as the Thanksgiving holiday time
frame approaches. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR cigs wl continue until after 19Z before improving to VFR. VFR
conditions later this afternoon wl prevail until after 09Z Thu.
After 09Z MVFR/IFR cigs wl redevelop cntrl and south with LIFR
conditions psbl 11-14Z in the south. Conditions wl slowly improve
back to VFR at most sites by 17Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  62  81  63 /   0   0   0  40
Meridian      82  59  81  60 /   0   0   0  20
Vicksburg     82  63  81  64 /   0   0   0  40
Hattiesburg   84  60  82  63 /   0   0   0  20
Natchez       83  61  80  64 /   0   0  10  40
Greenville    81  65  80  64 /   0  10  20  50
Greenwood     81  64  80  64 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ062>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/EC/22