846
FXUS64 KJAN 132022
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
322 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels of heat stress are expected during the late
  morning and afternoon hours each day over the first half of this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Through Monday: As anticipated previously, storms have once again
developed with strong daytime heating and are mainly focused over
the southeast two thirds of the area. A favorable environment for
microbursts with vertical totals near 26 deg C and DCAPE near
1500 j/kg is supporting a few intense storms with strong to
marginally severe wind gusts. This storm threat should continue
to the early evening hours. The storm threat for Monday should
shift a little farther south and west with coverage a little less.
Otherwise, dangerous heat continues to be the primary concern,
and the heat advisory was extended to Monday and expanded to
include northeast portions of the forecast area. /EC/

Tuesday through Sunday: The subtropical high will strengthen over
our region as we go later into the week with the center of the
high just to our north. This will result in low level flow
becoming more easterly over the mid to latter portions of the
week, which will eventually usher in a relatively drier airmass,
especially by Thursday. This airmass will still support hot days,
but with dewpoints dropping into 60s and perhaps the 50s, this
will notably reduce heat stress danger through the end of the
week. While days will still be relatively warm, mornings will see
temps dipping into the 60s more often across much of the area.
Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again around Friday
into Saturday, with returning potential for diurnal convection
each day. /DL/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected today with more
coverage over southeastern zones, as a result HBG/PIB/MEI have TS
reflected in a tempo running from 1322Z-1402Z today. While JAN/HKS
will have -SHRA for the same time period. All other sites VFR for
the period, as probs remain too low to confidently carry
hydrometeors in the TAF; to reiterate however, expect isolated
showers with embedded thunder throughout the CWA this afternoon as
PoPs hover in the 35% range. /OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  97  73  97 /  10  20   0   0
Meridian      72 100  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     74  97  74  97 /  10  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   74  97  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
Natchez       74  97  74  97 /  10  40  10  10
Greenville    75 100  74  99 /  10  30   0   0
Greenwood     73 100  73 100 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-
     025>037-040>044-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/DL/OAJ