835
FXUS64 KJAN 141437 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
937 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - There is an increasing threat for thunderstorms this weekend
   and we are monitoring for the potential for severe weather.

 - Before then, dry weather with above normal temperatures will
   continue to be the general rule.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rest of Today...High pressure at both the surface and aloft remains
firmly in place across the forecast area. This`ll continue to result
in warm temperatures this afternoon, with less humid conditions.
Under sunny skies, highs today will top out in the mid to upper 80s
with northeast winds between 5-10 mph, gusting at times between 15-
20 mph.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Other than some minor tweaks
to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major
changes will be made to the forecast on this morning`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The primary concern for this forecast will be with the increased
thunderstorm threat this weekend, but before then, it will be more
of the same through the work week with an unusually strong
subtropical ridge remaining fixed over the Southern Plains to
Lower MS Valley region. This will continue a long stretch of
above normal temperatures and dry conditions, and it`s not out of
the question for a few locations to reach 90 F, especially as we
go into late week.

Going into the weekend, global models are trying to come into
agreement on a significant shortwave trough that is forecast to
cross the central CONUS. The ECMWF/ECENS suite has been leading
the way so far with showing more aggressive wave amplification and
lower heights in the southern stream, and the GFS/GEFS and GEM
suites are trending in that direction. Either of these solutions
would provide sufficient lift/moisture/instability for storms to
develop and organize ahead of a cold front in the last Sat/Sat
night time frame, but the ECMWF suggests a scenario that is more
supportive of severe storms given stronger low level wind fields
and deep layer shear and the potential for great instability. NCAR
machine learning guidance based on solutions from the ECMWF suite
has been showing an upward trend for severe weather probabilities
over northwest portions of our area, and will continue to
highlight the potential for storms in our messaging per latest SPC
guidance.

The cold front will push through the area by early Sunday, and it
will be followed by seasonably mild and dry air as we go through
early next week. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

NE wind gusts to around 20 kts will be possible at times across all
TAF sites later this afternoon. Winds will then start to decrease
later this evening by 00Z Wednesday. Otherwise, quiet conditions
will persist through the entire TAF period with VFR ceilings
prevailing. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      86  52  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     88  54  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   87  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       86  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    88  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19