


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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835 FXUS64 KJAN 141437 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 937 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is an increasing threat for thunderstorms this weekend and we are monitoring for the potential for severe weather. - Before then, dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue to be the general rule. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 936 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Rest of Today...High pressure at both the surface and aloft remains firmly in place across the forecast area. This`ll continue to result in warm temperatures this afternoon, with less humid conditions. Under sunny skies, highs today will top out in the mid to upper 80s with northeast winds between 5-10 mph, gusting at times between 15- 20 mph. The ongoing forecast is in good shape. Other than some minor tweaks to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major changes will be made to the forecast on this morning`s update. /19/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The primary concern for this forecast will be with the increased thunderstorm threat this weekend, but before then, it will be more of the same through the work week with an unusually strong subtropical ridge remaining fixed over the Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley region. This will continue a long stretch of above normal temperatures and dry conditions, and it`s not out of the question for a few locations to reach 90 F, especially as we go into late week. Going into the weekend, global models are trying to come into agreement on a significant shortwave trough that is forecast to cross the central CONUS. The ECMWF/ECENS suite has been leading the way so far with showing more aggressive wave amplification and lower heights in the southern stream, and the GFS/GEFS and GEM suites are trending in that direction. Either of these solutions would provide sufficient lift/moisture/instability for storms to develop and organize ahead of a cold front in the last Sat/Sat night time frame, but the ECMWF suggests a scenario that is more supportive of severe storms given stronger low level wind fields and deep layer shear and the potential for great instability. NCAR machine learning guidance based on solutions from the ECMWF suite has been showing an upward trend for severe weather probabilities over northwest portions of our area, and will continue to highlight the potential for storms in our messaging per latest SPC guidance. The cold front will push through the area by early Sunday, and it will be followed by seasonably mild and dry air as we go through early next week. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 NE wind gusts to around 20 kts will be possible at times across all TAF sites later this afternoon. Winds will then start to decrease later this evening by 00Z Wednesday. Otherwise, quiet conditions will persist through the entire TAF period with VFR ceilings prevailing. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 55 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 86 52 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 88 54 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 87 54 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 86 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 88 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 88 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19