569
FXUS64 KJAN 011723 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1123 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We are monitoring for heavy rainfall threat associated with a
  cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly west of I-55.

- The aforementioned front could also carry a low end severe
  threat, primarily damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

The pattern becomes remains active over the next week with
persistent longwave troughiness over the region and several
shortwaves and strong jet energy. Intermittent low rain chances will
stick around throughout the week, but the greatest chances concern a
system anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The system will take shape late Sunday into Monday as a shortwave
digs from over the Pacific NW and phases with subtropical jet energy
to aid in the lee cyclogenesis off the Rockies. The corresponding
surface low will rapidly deepen as it tracks across the great
plains. This should create breezy conditions Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens in response. Moisture return in response will push
dewpoints up into the upper 60s near 70 ahead of its attendant cold
front. The cold front should lag behind the surface slow so most low
level forcing will be focused north. Storms will develop along the
front west over Oklahoma and Texas and push into our area late
Tuesday as the front approaches. Lightning probabilities continue to
suggest weakening with eastward extent which makes sense as low
level forcing weakens. This all acts to slow the front down and the
storms along it will reside in an environment favorable for heavy
rainfall with PWATs approaching 2 inches and moist convergence.
Storm motions suggest training along the slow moving boundary.
Rainfall amounts can easily stack up in this scenario. Some guidance
is suggesting bullseyes anywhere between 4 and 7 inches in a short
period. This threat will have to continue to be monitored.

There is a low end chance for isolated severe weather as well with
this system, but secondary to flash flood threat. Linear storm mode
and high shear low cape type environment suggest a primary
wind/tornado risk, which would likely be isolated with greatest
chances west of I-55 and the river. Heavy rainfall, as well as
overnight timing, may dwarf this threat a bit however and limit
instability. Still, it is worth monitoring.

Due to the secondary low development into Wednesday, moisture wrap
around lingers, so low (15-20%) rain chances continue through
Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts to generally under a tenth of
an inch. The jet remains active and persistent moist trajectories
may keep isolated rain chances around to end the week into next
weekend. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An abundance of stratus over the region and scattered showers
will continue to promote a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR flight
categories at area TAF sites during this 18Z forecast period.
Winds this afternoon will be from the southeast around 10 knots,
but they`ll subside a bit to around 5 knots this evening. Winds
will remain southeasterly Monday, but they`ll again increase
through late morning to around 10 knots, with some higher gusts at
times. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       79  62  80  63 /  50  10   0   0
Meridian      73  58  78  60 /  80  20   0   0
Vicksburg     80  62  82  63 /  60  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   79  62  81  61 /  50  10  10   0
Natchez       81  64  82  65 /  60  20  10   0
Greenville    76  62  79  64 /  70  30  10   0
Greenwood     73  59  78  62 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19