771
FXUS64 KJAN 301813 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1213 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Minor impacts from light freezing rain will be possible over
    far northwest portions of the area Monday and possibly again
    Monday night.

  - Widespread rain is expected Monday through Monday night
    followed by cold and dry conditions.

  - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of
    the week with additional rain events Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Today through early next weekend...

Through Monday night: Colder than normal conditions exist across the
area. Synoptic/water vapor analysis consist of mostly zonal flow
across the nation, with stronger trough axises over the Great Lakes
to OH Valley and another swinging into the Intermountain West. At
the surface, 1034-1036mb surface high is sprawled cross a large
portion of the nation out of the High Plains and extending well
southward into the southern Plains, Mid South and into the Gulf
Coast states. A surface cold front is moving through the region,
mainly situated over the Gulf Coast northeast into the Appalachians.
Continued moist ascent is driving rain through the area. The region
will remain under cold advection of polar air with widespread
stratus and rain chances dissipating from northwest to southeast;
however, moist advection and surface boundary stalled in the
northern Gulf will lead to continued overrunning and rain chances
coming back into the Hwy 84 corridor and spreading back northward.
With seasonably cold temperatures today into , some 5F to 10F along
and southeast of the Natchez Trace while 11F to 18F below to the
northwest, some overrunning precip combined with deep warm layer
(near max warm layer aloft of 8.0 C) and cold boundary layer could
lead to potential very light glaze on elevated surfaces in the
extreme northwest Delta by Monday morning. Convective allowing
guidance (CAMs) indicate a sharp cutoff in ice accumulation
potential, with HREF freezing rain accumulation model (FRAM)
indicating an area around Ashley and Chicot AR to Washington,
Sunflower and Bolivar MS having the highest potential as lows fall
near the 31F to 34F range. Further southeast, lows will remain in
the 35F to 46F range, so blustery, cold light rain will exist
elsewhere, with some moderate rain potential of 1 to 1.5 inches.
In the area of concern in the northwest, some slick spots on
bridges/overpasses could exist around daybreak Monday. These
impacts will be short-lived into Monday morning before warm
advection increases; however, blustery conditions with seasonably
cold highs struggling to reach 40F in the Delta while sharp
temperature gradient of nearly 62F in the Pine Belt. This will be
some 5F to 12F below normal southeast of the Natchez Trace while
13F to 24F below to the northwest. GLH could struggle to get out
of the top 5 coolest high temperatures into Monday. Additional
changeover back to ice accumulation is possible in the same areas
Monday night in the northwest Delta, but impacts are less certain
as duration will be cold air chasing precipitation (usually less
favorable setup). Hazard graphic looks good overall, but may
adjust timing to account for some low end wintry impacts Monday
night into early Tuesday morning for portions of extreme southeast
AR and possibly further south into northeast LA. Relevant
portions of previous discussion are attached below. /DC/

Tuesday through Wednesday night: Look drier and quite cold,
especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the
departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in
strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much
above 40 F Tuesday afternoon, and some locations may struggle to
even reach 40 F along the Hwy 82 corridor. Clearing skies and
diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday night should allow
temperatures to fall well into the 20s for much of the area, then
modification of the airmass will allow temperatures to rebound a
good bit by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: The next significant shortwave trough
will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of
another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the
forecast area. Forecast confidence has increased some regarding
the potential for a couple of rounds of heavy rainfall in the
Thu-Fri time frame. The storm system track should be suppressed
to near the coast, and therefore any severe weather potential
should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued
chilly airmass. Drier conditions are mostly likely to return
Saturday, but don`t be surprised if the next system affects the
area shortly after that. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As of 1809Z, JAN, HKS, PIB, GTR and HEZ currently under LIFR
ceilings. Poor flying conditions will prevail across the area
today due to low stratus. The low stratus will stick around across
multiple TAF sites through 00Z Monday. Several northern sites
will see winds out of the north with gusts around 18 kts through
23Z Monday. After 00Z Monday, ceilings will begin to improve to a
mix of VFR/MVFR conditions. VFR/MVFR ceilings will prevail across
the area through 15Z Monday. After 15Z Monday, ceilings will drop
down to IFR due to a combination of low stratus and rain showers.
Ceilings will continue to drop down to LIFR between 18Z - 23Z
Monday. Poor flying conditions will prevail across the area
through 06Z Tuesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  52  33  47 /  30  80 100  10
Meridian      38  55  35  48 /  20  70 100  20
Vicksburg     38  47  32  46 /  30  90  90  10
Hattiesburg   45  63  42  54 /  20  70 100  20
Natchez       39  52  33  48 /  40  90  90  10
Greenville    33  39  30  41 /  10  80  80   0
Greenwood     33  44  31  43 /  10  80  90  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/EC/CR