737
FXUS64 KJAN 101839
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
139 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat stress will remain a concern through this weekend.

- Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances in our forecast area
  will trend lower by mid week, and then begin to return this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Through Tuesday: Local radars were showing isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing over the northeast portions of the CWA.
This activity will increase in coverage this afternoon before
dissipating shortly after sunset. The convection is expected to
bring very little relief to the heat and humidity. Heat stress will
remain the main concern this afternoon and again Tuesday. A Heat
Advisory will remain in effect until this evening for the area
generally along and west of Interstate 55 and will be in effect
again Tuesday. This is the area where the most oppressive conditions
will occur but the remainder of the CWA will see peak heat index
values around 105F this afternoon and again Tuesday. /22/

Through the weekend: An anomalously strong ridge remains over the
Four Corners region this, but the Bermuda High is becoming the
dominant feature in our region as it retrogrades from the Atlantic
to the Gulf Coast. As it treks westward this week, it will become
a stronger limiting factor for rain chances. High PWAT values
near 2 inches will persist in the region through midweek, so
increasing heat and humidity will push our daily heat index values
over 105 degrees each day. Showers and thunderstorms will bring
spotty relief from the heat. Drier air will wrap from the Gulf and
southwestern US as the ridge becomes more prevalent, and PWAT
values will fall closer to 1.5 inches by on Friday. Model guidance
is favoring a new surge of tropical moisture by Saturday into
Sunday though, and the stout ridge and deep moisture could result
in more widespread significant dangerous heat (heat index values
near or greater than 110 degrees) by the weekend. Overnight low
temps will only fall into the mid or upper 70s later in the week,
worsening heat stress for vulnerable populations and those without
air conditioning. And rain chances will creep back in from the
south and east as humidity increases there.

Residents are reminded that heat is particularly dangerous for
the elderly, the sick, and those without access to reliable air
conditioning. Be sure loved ones and neighbors have access to a
cool place to stay in periods of more intense heat and humidity.
/NF/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Isolated SHRA/TSRA were noted developing on local radars in the ne
and south. This activity will increase this aftn and affect mainly
the east and southern TAF sites. Away from any TSRA,VFR conditions
and a light wind wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  95  76  96 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      75  94  76  95 /  10  10   0  10
Vicksburg     75  95  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   75  97  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
Natchez       74  96  75  97 /   0  10   0   0
Greenville    77  96  78  98 /  10  10   0   0
Greenwood     76  94  77  96 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/NF/22