739
FXUS64 KJAN 181146 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
646 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight for our whole area.
 - Post frontal boundary: fall-like temperatures and dry air.
 - Low rain chances return Tuesday with greater and more
   widespread rain chances expected Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Through Sunday: The main concern in the short term is the potential
for severe storms across our whole CWA tonight. This Slight Risk(2
out of 5) has been expanded in area from yesterday to encompass our
whole CWA.

Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a potent shortwave trough over New Mexico that will swing
east through the period and help support a cold front along and
ahead of which severe storms are expected to develop. Early morning
surface analysis had a ridge nosing back to the west along the Gulf
coast. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and the
developing low pressure system to our northwest will increase low
level flow that will become gusty and serve to increase low level
moisture back across our CWA today. Surface dew points were already
being observed in the low to mid 60s and there remains the potential
for stratus; including patchy fog this morning as a result. Deep
moisture will increase today ahead of the approaching cold front.
Surface dew points are expected to pool into the upper 60s to lower
70s this afternoon to fuel convection.

Although there may be an isolated storm or two late this afternoon
in our west the main timing for severe weather hasn`t changed much
and storms to our west are expected to form a QLCS with the
potential for damaging wind gusts and a few brief tornadoes as it
moves into the western portions of our CWA around sunset. This line
of storms will then proceed through the remainder of our CWA through
the night exiting our southeast most zones prior to sunrise Sunday.
In addition to the wind and tornado threat, locally heavy rainfall
of one to two inches is expected in a short amount of time.
Considering our dry soils, only minor runoff issues in the urban and
poor drainage areas are anticipated. This will be a clearing cold
front. Cooler and much drier air in its wake will end the rain in
our southeast by noon Sunday and surface dew points will be knocked
down into the 40s and 50s by sunday evening. Highs Sunday will only
be in the 70s as compared to the record high temperatures we have
been setting the past couple of days. /22/

Sunday Night through next Friday...

Quiet conditions will persist across our area Sunday night as a
1020mb sfc high builds over our forecast area. Weather conditions
will remain quiet heading into Monday thanks to the sfc high over
the southeast CONUS. The cooler airmass will allow for temperatures
to fall a few degrees below normal for mid October. A few nights
will see overnight temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s
across our CWA.

Scattered showers will make a return to the area Monday night (15-
20% rain chances) into Tuesday afternoon (20-30% chances) as long
term guidance continues to shows a shortwave trough disturbance
moving moving over the southeast CONUS region. Rain chances will
come to an end Tuesday evening. Weather conditions will remain quiet
Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds over the ArkLaMiss
Region giving us a brief little break from the rain. Future guidance
continues to shows a cold front from the central CONUS slowly
propagating southeastward towards our region by the late week. This
will help introduce scattered showers across our area heading into
Friday. Scattered showers will continue mainly for areas along and
west of I-55 looking ahead into the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

MVFR-LIFR conditions have develop over the southern TAF sits.
Lower conditions may spread into cntrl MS before improving. VFR
conditions are expected to resume areawide by 15Z. VFR conditions
and a gusty s-sw wind to around 25kts wl prevail until after 00Z
Sun. After 00Z Sun a band of TSRA along and ahead of a cold front
wl move over GLH and continue moving se through the night. This
band of TSRA wl bring lower flight restrictions and a wind shift,
and be se of HBG by 12Z Sun. Some lower flight restrictions may
continue past 12Z but conditions wl continue to improve from the
nw Sunday morning. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  63  73  46 /  30  90  10   0
Meridian      88  63  76  45 /  10  90  20   0
Vicksburg     89  63  73  47 /  40  90  10   0
Hattiesburg   88  67  81  46 /  20  90  20   0
Natchez       89  65  75  46 /  60  80  10   0
Greenville    88  61  70  45 /  20  90   0   0
Greenwood     89  60  72  43 /  10  90  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/CR/22