988
FXUS64 KJAN 191927
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
127 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dense fog will impact our southeast again Thursday morning.

  - Chances will increase for showers and a few storms as we
    approach the weekend.

  - A more significant storm system could impact our area early
    next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Through Thursday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a closed low over southern California
and ridging from the Gulf across our CWA and over the mid
Mississippi valley. A disturbance rounding the base of the closed
low will track northeast across the southern Plains tonight and then
over the upper level ridge Thursday. Surface ridging across the Gulf
coast and ridging aloft will try to hang tough over our CWA but
model consensus suggests low rain chances will return to our
northwest most zones by sunrise and then continue along and north of
Highway 82 Thursday as the disturbance moves east and well to our
north. In the south with continued waa maintaining the moist airmass
in place, dense fog will likely redevelop by morning. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for our southeast zones where confidence is
highest in a greater areal coverage of dense fog but patchy dense
fog will also be possible over east Mississippi as well.
Temperatures will continue well above normal through the period. /22/

Thursday night through Tuesday: Strong riding over the central
Gulf will be suppressed somewhat as a filling shortwave trough
ejects across the Southern US Friday. In advance of the wave, a
few rain showers can`t be ruled out around the periphery of the
ridge Thursday night. A low pressure system associated with the
approaching disturbance will push a cold front through the region
late Thursday night through Friday. Modest instability and wind
shear may exist in the warm sector out ahead of the cold front,
and some stronger thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out in
the air mass. Forcing with the front will be decreasing, and
resulting low-level flow will be more boundary-parallel. Therefore
there is no widespread threat for severe thunderstorms expected
at this time. Showers or a few storms may linger in our area on
Saturday as the front stalls out.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Flow aloft will amplify for early next week as another low digs over
the Desert Southwest and slowly lifts eastward. Moisture recovery
will begin along the TX Gulf Coast during this early week time
frame, and by Tuesday, the low could be sliding across the South
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms in the region.
It`s too far out to have certainty with this type of system in this
kind of weather pattern, but that will be our next target to monitor
for any impacts in our region as the Thanksgiving holiday time
frame approaches. /NF/KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR cigs wl continue until after 19Z before improving to VFR. VFR
conditions later this afternoon wl prevail until after 09Z Thu.
After 09Z MVFR/IFR cigs wl redevelop cntrl and south with LIFR
conditions psbl 11-14Z in the south. Conditions wl slowly improve
back to VFR at most sites by 17Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  81  63  79 /   0   0  40  80
Meridian      59  81  60  77 /   0   0  20  80
Vicksburg     63  81  64  80 /   0   0  40  70
Hattiesburg   60  82  63  80 /   0   0  20  70
Natchez       61  80  64  82 /   0  10  40  70
Greenville    65  80  64  78 /  10  20  50  70
Greenwood     64  80  64  77 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ062>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/NF/KP/22