265
FXUS64 KJAN 170758
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Through tonight: The main concern today will be the heat stress in
the west again.  Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed
the circulation around a rather flattened 593dam ridge just to our
north and a weak 590dam low spinning just to our south over
southeast Louisiana. The potential for this low to develop into a
tropical cyclone has been lowered this morning. The amount of
rainfall across our CWA has been lowered as well. Our local radars
indicated that the current convection associated with the low was
just skirting our southern most zones in the form of light showers.
The is progged to continue moving slowly west through tonight.
Circulation around the low will help send deep moisture northward
into our CWA. The latest JAN sounding had a PWAT around an inch and
a half. PWATs are expected to increase back above two inches across
the whole CWA and perhaps greater the two and a quarter inches
across our southern zones. With daytime heating of this deep
moisture scattered to numerous coverage of convection is expected
across the southeast half of the CWA. This greater coverage of
convection today and associated cloud cover should hold peak heat
index values down below 105 across the southeast half but heat index
values of 105-110F will again occur over the northwest half of the
CWA where a Heat Advisory will remain in affect. /22/

Friday through Sunday:

A wet pattern is expected through the weekend as a tropical
disturbance hovers near the Gulf coastline. Latest guidance from the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decrease tropical development
chances to 30%. Majority of the heaviest rainfall totals are
expected near the Gulf coastline and local rainfall totals may range
between 0.25 to 1 inches. The flooding threat has decrease over
several model runs; however, lingering showers/storms could provide
a low-end flood threat especially in southern portions. As the
disturbance weakens, rain chances will gradually decrease as an
upper-level ridge starts to build in.

Monday through Wednesday night:

Summertime conditions are expected to return as an upper-level ridge
progress into the southeast CONUS. Afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 90s with heat indices ranging between 105-110 degrees are
expected along with diurnal showers/storms driven by the heat. As
ridge strengthens over the region, afternoon highs in the upper 90s
with heat indices are expected to increase to 110 degrees or
greater by mid-week. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions wl continue to prevail until after 10Z when MVFR
cigs wl develop over east and se MS TAF sites. These cigs wl
improve but SHRA/TSRA will develop from the se and affect the
cntrl and srn TAF sites through 00Z. TAF sites in the north will
remain in VFR through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  75  91  74 /  50  20  80  20
Meridian      93  74  90  74 /  60  20  80  10
Vicksburg     95  76  91  75 /  40  20  80  20
Hattiesburg   92  76  91  75 /  80  30  90  20
Natchez       93  75  88  74 /  70  20  90  20
Greenville    96  75  91  75 /  10  10  50  10
Greenwood     97  76  94  75 /  20  10  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/SW/22