747
FXUS64 KJAN 140817
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
317 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Cyclonic flow associated with the low crossing the lower/mid MS
Valley is helping to anchor a boundary and associated moist
convergence from eastern AR into northwest MS. For now,
convective precip with the boundary is holding just north of the
forecast area, and this should continue to be the case until at
least the early morning hours, when a greater surge of vorticity
is expected to help propel the activity farther south. In any
case, intensity should not reach severe limits with the storms in
our area, but a localized heavy rainfall threat may materialize
given the favorable and persistent alignment of moisture
transport vectors with the storm system. /EC/

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Tonight and Saturday...

The closed mid/upper level low pressure system, seen on the
latest water vapor imagery spinning in the vicinity of the
Missouri/Arkansas state-line, will weaken through Saturday. As it
becomes an open trough, it`ll track east northeast into the Ohio
River Valley through Saturday. Our region will remain under the
influence of the southern extent of this trough, with flow aloft
across the CWA gradually becoming more west to west northwesterly
in the process. Meanwhile at the surface, persistent southwest
flow will maintain a deeply moist airmass across the region during
the period.

The above scenario will continue to result in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area as we head into
the start of the weekend. Much of this convection will be diurnally
driven. Thus, dissipating during the evening hours as daytime
heating steadily wanes. However, some isolated convection can`t be
ruled out during the overnight hours.  Once again as we heat up and
destabilize on Saturday, highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s,
scattered to numerous showers and storms will again develop across
the area. Some of the more intense storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds, but heavy downpours and frequent lightning
can be expected with all storms. /19/

Through next week...

Not much change to the forecast with daily rain and storm chances
likely to persist. With the upper low currently situated over the
Ozarks projected to gradually shift across northern portions of the
area this weekend into early next week, expect the unsettled weather
to continue with no meaningful airmass change. The high boundary
layer moisture will keep our diurnal ranges short, with temperatures
only falling to the mid 70s overnight. The hot and humid conditions
will support reinvigoration of a stalled boundary in the Pine Belt
region with enhanced rain and storm chances there.

The primary concern severe wise comes some time between Tuesday and
Thursday (timing is really uncertain at this time), with a short
wave progged to shift across the central CONUS. This will increase
midlevel flow in our area mid next week to around 30kts, which is
sufficient for organized storms. Along with mid level lapse rates
6- 7c/km, there is potential for severe. Details will have to be
ironed out once we get more into the CAM window. Outside of that,
storms are less likely to be organized and should be more pulsey
in nature, typical of the time of year. Will have to watch for
microburst potential as we heat up later next week and moisture
remains sufficient. This will have to be determined on a day to
day basis. Heavy downpours will also remain possible in the moist
airmass, but any more organized or widespread flash flood
potential is too uncertain to determine right now. Heavier
downpours within deeper cores could cause at least localized flash
flooding.

As high pressure builds in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave,
the heat builds with it. With temperatures in the low 90s and
dewpoints likely to stick in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices will
be approaching or locally exceeding the 105 threshold for heat
criteria towards the back end of the forecast period later next
week. Heat advisories may eventually be needed for at least a
portion of the area. Recent rainfall and high soil moisture only
look to exacerbate this through evapotranspiration. The high
humidity will also lead to overnight lows only falling to about
the mid 70s./SAS/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Through Next Friday...

The weather will remain essentially the same over the next 7 days:
Daytime sporadic showers and thunderstorms forming in the mid
morning, steadily building in both coverage and intensity by mid
afternoon and tapering off through the waning daylight hours,
finally dissipating an hour or two after sunset.

Rain totals both from singular storms, and for the overarching week
remain pretty low (<2in/7days) so there are no concerns for flash
flooding. Some rivers remain elevated from last week`s rises so we
can expect these rivers to hover around the same levels, with no
significant relief in sight.

The big question will be the max expected intensity for these
storms, and over the weekend and into the early week the environment
does not support any strong organization and thus wind and hail will
remain below severe thresholds. Mid to late week it does look like
the overall synoptic pattern begins to sharpen and organize, and
this looks to be the timeframe with the highest probability for
severe storms. Since that`s still quite a few days out we`re not a
the point where our confidence is high enough regarding
timing/coverage to really elucidate on this further.

We will continue to monitor any shifts in the upper level pattern,
and attendant resolution shifts in order to dial in the threats,
if any,for next week.

Other than that, hot and humid days are in store with the heat index
steadily climbing day to day, Some sites should break into the
triple digit HIs by mid week, which could trigger some products
communicating heat danger./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

ALL TAF sites are VFR are tonight and this will continue through
much of the night. Some MVFR ceilings are possible after 09-10Z,
but will burn off by mid morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon across
much of the area, which will bring occasional MVFR/IFR conditions
to sites into this evening. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  87  72 /  60  30  80  30
Meridian      90  70  89  71 /  70  30  90  30
Vicksburg     90  72  89  74 /  60  30  80  20
Hattiesburg   93  73  91  73 /  60  30  90  20
Natchez       89  72  88  73 /  60  30  80  20
Greenville    88  72  88  73 /  70  30  70  20
Greenwood     88  72  89  72 /  80  40  70  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/OAJ/15