504
FXUS64 KJAN 141749
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Rain chances will diminish across the area heading into the evening
with quiet conditions expected heading into the overnight period.
Similar to yesterday evening, HREF guidance is showing low
probabilities (10-20%) of patchy fog across the area. Confidence is
too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow
patchy fog will be possible around dawn. Overnight lows will drop
into the low 70s areawide.

Quiet weather conditions will persist across our CWA through Tuesday
morning as near term guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high
gradually pushing northeast across the southeast CONUS. A few
scattered showers cannot be ruled out. Humid conditions will persist
across the area thanks to this sfc high which will lead to dangerous
heat concerns across the region. Areas along and west of a line from
Clay to Jackson to Laurel MS will have the best potential to see
heat index readings between 106-110 degrees. No changes have been
made and the "Elevated" risk for dangerous will continue to be
advertised. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for tomorrow given
the increased warming trends. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid
to high 90s areawide. /CR/

Wednesday through Sunday...

No changes have been made to the extended period. Dangerous heat
will continue to be the main focus for the long term period with
heat indices in the triple digits. Global guidance is still showing
a 1020mb sfc high hovering over the southeast region looking ahead
into Wednesday. As this high continues to hover over the region,
humid conditions will persist across our CWA. Rain chances will
start to increase across eastern portions of our forecast area
thanks to northeasterly moist boundary layer advection. Elsewhere,
areas west of I-55 will remain fairly dry.

Dangerous heat conditions will continue across our entire forecast
area Wednesday through Thursday with heat indices between 106-110
degrees. This is supported by model consensus from both the GFS and
the Euro showing daytime highs in the mid/upper 90s, and dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching the low 80s.
Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the hottest days with highs in
the upper 90s. While multiple areas across our entire forecast area
will have the best potential to see heat index readings in the 106-
110 range, there are a few isolated spots west of I-55 that could
see heat indices greater than 110 degrees. Because of this, no
changes have been made to the dangerous heat graphic for the
Wednesday/Friday timeframe and the "Elevated" risk will continue to
be advertised. Likewise, a "Limited" risk for increasing heat stress
will continue to be advertised for areas east and northeast MS.

Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get through mid/late
week. Further adjustments to the heat graphic will likely be needed
heading into the mid week. if heat trends continue to increase, then
a "Significant" risk for dangerous heat will be introduce for areas
along and west of I-55 including portions of southeast AR and all of
our northeast LA parishes. In addition to the "Significant" risk
being introduced, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed
as well.

Afternoon/early evening showers and storms will provide some relief
from the heat. Both the GFS and the Euro continues to show
convection coming to an end by the evening hours each day as daytime
heating wanes. Global guidance is still showing a low pressure
system moving along the Gulf coast by the mid-week. At the moment,
the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still monitoring for a low
probability (around 10-30% chance) of tropical development. With
tropical moisture pushing into the southeast region and PWATs in the
90th percentiles, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still
highlight a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday and
Friday. Additional updated will provided as we get closer to the
late week. Rain chances will linger into Saturday afternoon/evening
with higher PoPs (around 50-85%) along and east of I-55. Rain
chances will linger heading into Sunday with decent PoPs (around
30-55%) across our CWA with slightly higher PoPs (around 60%)
across the Pine Belt. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through much
of the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
this afternoon and early evening will be possible at area sites.
If observed, convection could reduce both ceilings and/or
visibilities to MVFR status for a brief period of time. The most
intense storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, but
frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours can be expected
with any of today`s convection. Once convection passes and/or
dissipates, categories will return to VFR status, and remain as
such throughout the remainder of the forecast. Winds this
afternoon away from convection will be sustained from the west
southwest between 5- 8 knots, becoming light to calm overnight.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  95  75  97 /   0  20   0  20
Meridian      73  96  75  97 /   0  20  10  40
Vicksburg     75  95  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   75  98  76  97 /  10  20  10  60
Natchez       73  94  74  96 /  10  10   0  20
Greenville    74  94  75  96 /  10  20   0  10
Greenwood     74  95  76  97 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/19