332
FXUS64 KJAN 190615
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
115 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Local radars were currently quiet in our CWA as the day`s
convection has dissipated. There still remains the chance of
additional storms dropping in from the north well after midnight
tonight along and ahead of a cold front. Latest hi-res guidance
suggests some vigorous convection will be possible toward sunrise
in our north. With this convection isolated strong to severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

No changes have been made to the forecast for the short term period.
Rain chances will continue for northern portions of our forecast
area tonight and Thursday thanks to the upper level ridging pattern
over our CWA. Hi-res guidance continues to show a trough axis over
our forecast area with ridging on each side. Heading into the
overnight period, southerly/southwesterly flow aloft will bring
ample moisture and instability across northern portions of the area.
Several of these storms will be strong and an few isolated severe
storms cannot be ruled out. The timing for the severe graphic for
tonight has been updated based on hi-res guidance showing a
potential complex sinking south across northern parts of our area by
midnight with a continuation of storm through Thursday morning. This
graphic encompasses both outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center
for tonight through Thursday morning. A "Marginal" risk for isolated
severe storms will continued to be advertised mainly for areas along
and north of I-20. Damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to
quarter size will be the primary hazards. There is a possibility
that any organized convection that reaches our area could start
after midnight.

In addition to the severe potential for tonight/Thursday morning,
some of these storms will have the potential to produce heavy
downpours at times. Given local PWAT values above 1.5" and the
potential for slow moving training storms, some localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out. HREF guidance is starting to show some
low probabilities of patchy dense fog near the Hwy 84 corridor early
Thursday morning. Confidence is low regarding the coverage of the
fog potential, so a fog graphic will not be issued at this time.
Storms will continue for portions of north MS heading into Thursday
morning as hi-res guidance starts to show the frontal boundary
shifting south across the southeast CONUS. Rain chances will be
widespread by Thursday afternoon. /CR/

The overall forecast for the extended period remains on track with
no major changes made to the forecast. Heat related risk will
continue to be the primary concern for our entire forecast area
heading into the weekend and the new work week. No changes have been
made to the heat graphic and "Elevated" threat for heat related
impacts will continue to be advertised for our entire CWA. Please
see the previous forecast discussion down below for more details:

Friday through Next Week: The pattern begins to shift as an upper
level trough swings through the Midwest and being replaced by a
southwestern ridging pattern. This pattern will dominate into early
next week. Diurnally driven convection will persist, with the
greatest coverage and intensity focused closer to the Gulf Coast. In
addition the combination of rising temperatures and humidity will
steadily increase the risk for heat stress. Therefore, the risk for
heat related impacts has been increased to an "Elevated" threat
areawide in the GHWO. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of
the area late this week into early next week. Please remember to
make sure friends,relatives and pets have a cooler location to spend
the afternoon hours and warm overnight hours. /KP/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Going through the early morning hours, primary concerns will be
for stratus/fog development, especially over eastern/southern MS.
Recent obs trends suggest it could be more problematic than most
guidance show there, and current forecasts may not be pessimistic
enough, so monitor for amendments. Other concerns relate to TSRA
potential as we go beyond daybreak through Thursday afternoon. The
GLH-GWO-GTR corridor should be most impacted during the morning,
but additional development may take place along the remnant
boundary during the aftn. Farther south, the afternoon activity
should have the most impact on TSRA chances. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  92  74  94 /  20  40  10  20
Meridian      72  92  73  94 /  10  40  10  30
Vicksburg     74  92  75  94 /  20  30   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  95  75  96 /  10  50  10  40
Natchez       73  92  74  93 /  10  30   0  10
Greenville    73  92  75  94 /  10  20   0  10
Greenwood     73  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/22/CR/KP