070
FXUS64 KJAN 031748 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1148 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flash flooding in
  low-lying or urban areas this evening into early Wednesday
  morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next
  week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A departing upper-level shortwave ridge is in the process of
being replaced by a trough and deepening low pressure system
making its way into the central CONUS. The low itself is expected
to lift northeastward today from the Southern High Plains to the
Upper Midwest which should direct most forcing north and west of
our forecast area, but a spoke of the shortwave energy pivoting
overhead during the afternoon and evening shows at least modest
height falls over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Without prolonged
warm, moist advection in advance of this system`s cold frontal
passage, forecast instability is in the range of 500-1500 J/kg
over northeast LA during the daylight hours tomorrow but
decreasing to around 400-700 J/kg as the front moves further east
into Mississippi after dark. There is a modest 40kts of deep-layer
shear expected across the front, but less favorable instability
suggests only low potential for pre-frontal convection to develop
into discreet supercells beyond northeast LA in the afternoon
hours. The primary hazards will be wind squalls with line segments
into the early morning hours and heavy rainfall rates. Weak
tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heaviest rain rates could pose an
isolated flash flood threat in low-lying or urban areas, but the
progressive movement of the front should limit an organized
flooding threat. The Marginal severe storm risk remains in place
for approximately the northwestern half of the area, and the
"Limited" flash flood threat graphic continues to highlight about
the northwestern third.

This weather should clear by Wednesday, but showers could linger in
the wake of the front across eastern Mississippi Wednesday morning.
The pattern will reinforce mostly dry weather Wednesday into early
next week. Building high pressure over the weekend will push
temperatures below normal across our forecast area. High
temperatures Saturday through next Monday should be mostly in the
mid to upper 60s or near 70 degrees, while overnight low from Friday
night onwards will dip into the 30s and 40s. Frost seems likely in
that time frame with any periods of particularly calm overnight
winds and mostly clear skies. Will continue to monitor trends, but
we are in the time of year where frost and light freeze are normal
and the growing season has ended already. /NF/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR cigs wl continue areawide until after 19Z before improving to
VFR at most TAF sites. The exception wl be in the nw where an area
of SHRA/TSRA wl be moving into the area ahead of a cold front. The
SHRA/TSRA wl spread from the nw into the cntrl and east MS TAF
sites through the night bringing lower flight restrictions. In the
se IFR/LIFR conditions wl develop by 09z away from any SHRA
activity. GLH-GWO wl improve to VFR prior to 12Z but elsewhere
conditions wl only improve to MVFR by the end of the TAF period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  62  77  50 /   0  80  20   0
Meridian      80  63  79  49 /  10  30  50   0
Vicksburg     84  57  75  47 /  50 100   0   0
Hattiesburg   82  64  82  53 /  20  10  40   0
Natchez       84  60  76  50 /  40 100   0   0
Greenville    81  56  72  47 /  90 100   0   0
Greenwood     82  59  73  46 /  10 100  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/86/22