012
FXUS64 KJAN 061818
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
118 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening.

- Dangerous heat stress will persist across much of the area
  through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Another hot and humid afternoon is underway, with heat indices now
in the 105-110F range across much of the northern 2/3rd of the
area. Areas further south got a later start due to morning low
clouds, but they are into the 100-105F range and climbing. A weak
cold front is approaching from the north. Ahead of it,
mesoanalysis indicates steepening low level lapse rates within a
moist airmass. Scattered storms are beginning to develop in this
regime and will continue to do so through later this afternoon.
The aforementioned instability combined with increasing upper flow
and strong DCAPE suggests a greater potential for damaging wind
gusts with storms that develop today. We may also some of these
storms organize into multicell clusters that might contribute to
strong wind gusts along southward moving outflows. Don`t be
surprised to see some severe thunderstorm warnings later this
afternoon. Coverage and intensity are expected to decrease
quickly after sunset.

For Labor Day, the weak front will bring a brief spell of
relatively drier air over parts of north MS and AR, potentially
encroaching closer to the I-20 corridor during the day. While this
could help to limit heat indices the farther north one goes in our
area, it is still expected to be quite hot in these areas
nevertheless. And further south, the humidity will remain; thus,
another heat advisory has been posted for Monday across much of
the area. The front will also help to limit rain chances across
most of the area. However, south of the front there could be a
repeat performance of today across central LA into south MS. At
this point, it`s unclear if storms would initiate in the Natchez-
Hattiesburg corridor or just south of our area. Nevertheless,
though there is currently no formal severe threat, we can`t rule
out damaging wind potential on Labor Day afternoon.

Tuesday through the end of the week: The weak front will wash
out, with low level moisture recovering again areawide Tuesday
into Wednesday. Conditions will continue to be seasonably warm
each day, and it`s possible heat stress potential will be high
enough for additional heat advisories in some areas, though
forecast heat indices are looking more marginal than what has been
experienced in recent days. Mainly diurnal convection will remain
possible, initially focused midweek mainly across south MS and
LA, but expanding northward through the end of the week. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered SHRA and TS are possible from mid afternoon through
early evening today, with brief visby reductions and wind gusts up
to 50 kt possible. A brief period of low clouds is possible around
daybreak Monday morning across south MS and central LA. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light
wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  98  73  95 /  20  10   0  10
Meridian      73  99  73  94 /  20  10  10  10
Vicksburg     74  99  72  97 /  20  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  98  74  94 /  20  30  20  40
Natchez       74  98  73  97 /  20  20  10  10
Greenville    75  99  72  99 /  20   0   0  10
Greenwood     73  98  72  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-034-
     035-040>043-047>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL