377
FXUS64 KJAN 031135 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
635 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Today and tonight: Patchy dense fog has developed in the northeast
where significant rainfall occurred Tuesday. The dense fog is
expected to remain patchy but this area is being monitored for a
possible Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise, wl maintain northwest flow
aloft through the period as upper level troughing over the eastern
CONUS remains dominant. A stalled frontal boundary wl continue just
north of our CWA and a rather moist airmass wl continue over our
CWA. Daytime heating wl lead to the development of scattered mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Unlike last night at this time
local radars were quiet in our CWA but regional radars had
convection initiating over east central Arkansas. The movement of
this convection was east southeast and some of this activity may
spread into our northern zones around sunrise. Our normal highs run
in the upper 80s. Highs this afternoon will be near normal across
the north but top out slightly above normal across the southern half
of our CWA. Our normal lows run in the mid 60s. Lows tonight wl be
near normal across the northern half of our CWA and slightly warmer
than normal across the southern half. /22/

Thursday through next Tuesday...The troughing pattern over the
region will steadily break down late in the work week.  As the
trough lifts out, the mid/upper level and surface closed low
pressure system over central Ontario Canada will send a surface
frontal boundary south toward the region.  This boundary will stall
over the Mid-South region and essentially washout.  South of this
boundary across our area, increasingly hot and humid conditions will
ensue as highs warm into the low and middle 90s Thursday and into
the mid and upper 90s Friday.

Over the weekend, a more zonal pattern aloft will setup over us. A
surface low being absorbed into the aforementioned low over Ontario
Canada, will drag a cold front south into and through the forecast
area. This front will bring at least a slight chance of showers and
storms to portions of the forecast area during this time.  In the
wake of this front, some slightly cooler drier air will advect south
into the region.  This will result in highs decreasing from the mid
80s to mid 90s of Saturday, to the mid 80s and lower 90s expected of
Sunday.  Lows will also follow suit, as they generally fall into the
60s both Saturday and Sunday night.

Troughing aloft will again increase across the Lower Mississippi
River Valley Monday into Tuesday.  The slightly cooler drier
conditions will persist during this time.  Highs both days will only
warm into the 80s, with lows Monday and Tuesday night again in the
60s.  This pattern will also keep some chances for rain in the
forecast each day as very weak disturbances push across the forecast
area. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

LIFR vsby wl cont at GTR through 13Z before improving to VFR.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail until after 16Z
when scattered TSRA wl develop and affect the TAF sites except at
PIB and HBG where the TSRA are expected to remain north of those
sites. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  68  92  70 /  40  10   0   0
Meridian      89  67  91  70 /  30  10   0   0
Vicksburg     89  68  93  70 /  40  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   92  69  94  70 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       89  68  91  69 /  40  10   0   0
Greenville    87  67  93  69 /  40  10   0   0
Greenwood     89  67  93  69 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/19/22