165
FXUS64 KJAN 021808
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
108 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

There`s a remnant weak surface boundary over far northwestern
Mississippi that will continue drift southeastward while washing
out over the next 24-36 hours. Broken cloud coverage is lingering
across the area today and should persist through the afternoon
hours. As the day progresses and daytime heating provide more
energy, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread
and stronger, in conjunction with the stationary boundary ambling
southward. At this moment the highest winds we are looking to see
should be in the 30- 40mph range with a small potential for a
cell or two to overachieve into 50+ mph.

Sunset will put a damper on convective activity, and we will see
precipitation cease entirely by 10PM. The front should drape through
central to southern Mississippi by this time too, the upper levels
largely reflect the surface in that there is set to broad
troughing over the CWA for the next few days, bringing
progressively clearer skies daily through the late week.

While skies will certainly be clearer, this does not mean we`re out
of the woods just yet concerning precipitation chances. There will
still be residual moisture/lift for Wednesday ushering forth another
round of diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday look to be our driest days over the next week
with the aforementioned broad troughing allowing for dry air to
settle into across the southeastern United States.

Over the weekend a low progged to spin up over central Texas will
begin tracking our way, with the northeastern peripheries of the
cloud shield beginning to affect the Gulf coast stretching across
central MS early Saturday morning. Instability provided by this low,
along with a healthy amount of moisture set to start channeling into
the CWA will provide enough ingredients to regenerate our diurnally
driven convection. Daily coverage and intensity will increase daily
reaching a crescendo Tuesday afternoon.

Its tough to say with any sort of confidence the impacts this next
low will provide, given that the depth and tracking this far out
tend to be a bit too variant. Should the low track faster out of
Texas than is currently projected, we could see widespread strong
and scattered damaging wind events. In the past global guidance
tends to be a bit overzealous with cyclogenesis so we`re going to
err on the more optimistic side of things until we get closer to
next week. /OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered SHRA and TSRA will be ongoing mainly north and west of
the Natchez Trace corridor through 01Z Wednesday. This will
primarily impacts sites KGLH, KGWO, and KGTR. Chances for impacts
from thunder at the other sites were too low to mention at this
time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  89  69  92 /  20  30   0  10
Meridian      66  89  67  92 /  20  20   0  10
Vicksburg     69  89  68  93 /  20  30   0   0
Hattiesburg   66  92  69  95 /  10  10   0  10
Natchez       68  89  68  92 /  10  20   0   0
Greenville    66  87  66  92 /  30  20   0   0
Greenwood     67  88  66  93 /  40  30   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/NF