635
FXUS64 KJAN 271903
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Much cooler and drier air will continue to surge into the area
    for the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be
    followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

  - We are monitoring the potential for winter weather over
    northwest portions of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Tonight through Friday night: Overall, the weather pattern will be
cold for the next week in our forecast area due to a dominant polar
stream over central and eastern portions of the CONUS. In the near
term, cold high pressure ridging southward through the lower MS
Valley will bring continued dry conditions with below normal
temperatures. A freeze is probable for most of the area tonight, and
for eastern portions of the area Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday: A fast-moving shortwave trough will zip
through the polar stream and bring a round of light to moderate
rainfall, especially in the late Saturday to early Sunday time
frame. Forecast confidence for limited impacts is high given the
progressive nature of the system, modest moisture return, and
limited low level instability. /EC/ Morning guidance reinforces this
idea and while some thunder could be possible, severe weather
appears unlikely as dewpoints only manage to recover into the
middle 50s at best for our area with moisture depth shallow. /86/

Sunday Night through Tuesday morning:

Attention quickly turns back toward the west by Sunday evening as
clouds will begin to thicken despite the recent progression of a
potent cold front. Another shortwave/upperlow embedded within the
long wave upper troughing will be slowly moving east out of the
southwestern states/northern Mexico and while winds below 850 mb
will be northerly and cold, winds aloft will strengthen and become
southwesterly, creating what to many likely resembles a pattern
reminiscent of those that can create winter weather problems in our
area. Fortunately, trends this morning in model guidance have backed
off a bit on the idea of a meaningful zone of freezing rain in the
northwest portions of the area. With trends suggesting the lower
atmosphere could be a bit slower to moisten on Sunday night,
precipitation likely doesn`t begin reaching the ground in the areas
near freezing until near sunrise or later Monday morning, suggesting
that widespread precipitation will be confined to the warmer part of
the day Monday. This likely means we see a plain, cold rain. There
remains some lower end chance that should precipitation begin a bit
earlier than expected, some light/trace icing could still be
possible in the upper Delta before additional, heavier rains
melt/wash away any traces. It`s also possible that a few ice
pellets/sleet pellets reach the ground Monday morning as the
atmosphere moistens. These pellets will not be impactful nor
hazardous, however, and will melt quickly as surface temperatures
will be above freezing.

Rain is likely through the day Monday and will likely persist into
the overnight period and for some of the area may not completely
move east and away until afternoon Tuesday. For most, this activity
will be a cold, soaking rain making for a dreary and wet day. The
greater concern, however, will be to the northwest where deeper cold
air attempts to move into the upper Delta before the rain fully
moves out. These "cold air chasing the rain" scenarios locally
rarely result in more than a brief, non-impactful changeover to
wintry precipitation right as the precipitation ends. While this
situation will need to be monitored as temperatures in that area
will likely be near freezing around the time the precipitation
wanes, for now it appears that those areas will also escape without
impactful winter weather overall.


To break it down quantitatively, through Tuesday morning:

Near 100% chance of rain for the area.

Around a 40% chance for an unimpactful report of an ice pellet or
two early Monday morning.

Around a 30% chance for isolated and unimpactful trace icing on
elevated surfaces/vegetation in the far northwest.

Less than 10% chance for meaningful ice accumulation (>0.05")
through Tuesday morning in the far northwest.

Tuesday night through Thursday:

The pattern will remain active with general troughing across the
CONUS. As additional shortwaves rotate through the primary trough
axis, we likely will see additional chances for rain. With the jet
pattern so active, it is challenging even inside of a week at day
6/7 to speak with much precision, but it does appear likely at this
point that the next rain chance should come amid somewhat milder
temperatures around Thursday which would limit any wintry weather
concerns, despite the continued cool weather overall. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR flight conditions with northerly winds will prevail through
the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       33  55  37  60 /   0   0   0  30
Meridian      30  53  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     33  56  39  61 /   0   0   0  50
Hattiesburg   34  59  37  67 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       35  58  40  67 /   0   0   0  30
Greenville    33  52  38  55 /   0   0  10  80
Greenwood     30  53  37  56 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/LP/SW