208
FXUS64 KJAN 251753
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1253 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Today through Tomorrow:

The forecast for the near term period remains on track for the most
part with  only a few minor adjustments made to the overall
forecast. Went ahead and adjusted afternoon PoPs to 20% today to
account for afternoon showers/t-storms. Similar to yesterday, hot
and humid conditions will continue across our area as hi-res
guidance continues to show the upper-level ridge over the southeast
CONUS. The heat advisory remains in effect for our whole forecast
area today until later this evening with heat indices around 105-110
degrees.

Model consensus suggest a line of storms may organize to our east
and move into our east central and southeast zones later this
evening. A marginal risk for isolated severe storms will continue to
be advertised for areas along I-59 and east through the early
morning. This outflow boundary may serve as a focus for additional
storms during the day Thursday. The marginal risk has been expanded
further west for Thursday. Damaging winds will be the primary
concern. HREF guidance is showing low probabilities (around 10%) for
areas of patchy dense fog tonight through early Thursday morning for
several areas south of I-20. Confidence is too low to mention any
hazard graphics at this time. Overnight lows will drop to the low to
mid 70s areawide.

No changes have been made to the forecast for the long-term period.
The marginal risk for isolated severe storms will continue to be
advertised for areas along I-59 and east with damaging winds being
the primary threat.

Through early next week:

A midlevel high continues to influence our area through late this
week, while low level moisture is largely retained. The hot and
humid conditions will result in continued heat stress and a heat
advisory remains in effect for the area through Thursday evening.
Heat should moderate later this week into the weekend with slightly
"cooler" high temps in the low 90s, and increased rain and storm
chances.

Late week, a weak upper low begins to shift into the area from
Florida as the upper ridge begins to break down and shift east,
which leads to a steady increase in rain chances across the area,
with highest chances in the east. This feature remains very weak and
meanders over the region. Moisture remains high and storms persist
through the period. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions with light and variable winds should prevail at
the TAF sites through the period. Isolated SHRA or TSRA are also
possible, though confidence was too low to mention in TAFs at this
time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  95  73  93 /  20  20  20  30
Meridian      73  96  72  93 /  20  30  30  50
Vicksburg     75  95  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   74  97  73  93 /  20  40  30  60
Natchez       74  94  73  93 /  20  20  10  20
Greenville    75  94  74  94 /  20  10   0  10
Greenwood     75  96  74  95 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/NF