835
FXUS64 KJAN 020151
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
851 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase on Friday. More widespread showers and
  storms are expected this weekend, along with heavier downpours.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into
  the middle of next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Shower activity is gradually diminishing this evening when the
loss of diurnal heating. Overnight into Friday morning, a low
stratus deck is expected to develop across south MS and central
LA, potentially reaching further north toward the I-20 corridor
than what was seen this morning. Areas of fog are also possible
in the same general area, particularly in more sheltered areas
where mixing will be weak enough to permit fog development. For
now the threat for significant dense fog is not imminent enough to
highlight, but we will continue to monitor potential overnight.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Tonight through next Wednesday...Moisture will subtly increase
across the region as southerly flow at the surface and aloft has
returned.  Rain chances will increase further on Friday, with good
chances continuing through the upcoming weekend, before backing down
during the first part of next week. The best rain chances through
this forecast period will again come Saturday and Sunday. This is
when the presence of a weakening trough will be most observed across
the forecast area, as ridging aloft flattens and gets nudged more to
the east of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This setup, coupled
with added ascent from the sub-tropical jet just to our north, and
daytime heating creating an unstable airmass, will yield mainly
afternoon showers and storms developing across the forecast area,
with some activity lingering into the evening hours each day.

At the moment, these storms are not expected to be severe. However,
some gusty winds can`t be ruled out with the more intense
thunderstorms. Due to the very dry soil conditions across the area
and overall rainfall being spread out over multiple days, widespread
flash flooding isn`t expected. However, localized heavy downpours in
a short amount of time and the potential for some training of
convection, could result in the ponding of water on roads and in low-
lying and poor drainage areas, again especially Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances will begin to decrease from northwest to southeast
Monday into mid-week.  A cold front will shift southeast through the
CWA Monday.  Cool dry high pressure will build into the forecast
area in this front`s wake through mid-week.  Currently while rain
chances will come to an end across much of the area, some isolated
showers will remain possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi in
the vicinity of the front as it stalls across the north central
gulf.  This scenario will result in cooler drier conditions across
the forecast area as we begin the new work week. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Scattered SHRA this afternoon will taper off around sunset, with
additional isolated to scattered SHRA or TS possible again on
Friday, with highest chances in the afternoon. These could result
in brief visby reductions at impacted sites. Another round of low
stratus and possible fog is expected along and south of I-20 early
Friday morning, with conditions improving again by mid-morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the balance of the
TAF period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  92  70  88 /  20  30  20  60
Meridian      69  91  69  87 /   0  40  30  60
Vicksburg     71  92  70  88 /  20  20  30  60
Hattiesburg   70  91  70  87 /  10  80  40  80
Natchez       72  93  70  88 /  20  30  10  70
Greenville    73  91  69  86 /  10  30  20  40
Greenwood     71  92  69  88 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/19