005
FXUS64 KJAN 201853
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
153 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions resulting in dangerous heat stress will
  exist through the middle of this week.

- Tropical Depression Two is forecast to track south of our area,
  with the probability of hazardous impacts in our area very low
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Through Wednesday...

Mid and upper ridging centered over the southwestern CONUS and
Rockies, paired with an increasingly moist low level airmass, will
result in hot and humid conditions over the next few days, with
high temps approaching the triple digits in some areas and heat
indices over 105F and exceeding 110F at times. During the
overnight, temperatures will be above average with lows in the
upper 70s in most areas, and possibly around 80 in some spots
Tuesday night/Wed morning. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
areawide, except in the upper Delta where an Extreme Heat Warning
is in effect. These were both expanded the Extreme Heat through
central MS and NW LA through Tuesday evening.

As we are on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, there will
be isolated to scattered mainly diurnally driven convection each
day, with chances hovering around 20% through mid week which will
provide at least temporary heat relief for some sites that see
precipitation.

A few storms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, but
there are no signs of organized severe potential worthy of an
outlook at this time.

TD 2 is located over the northeastern Gulf today. In spite of its
relatively close proximity, the odds of hazardous impacts to our
area continue to remain very low. The upper ridge resulting in the
heat impacts locally will expand through the week, steering the
system westward. Additionally, it appears increasing shear may
displace much of the convection to the south side of the system.
Based on the current forecast track, showers could make it up to
the Hwy 98 corridor during the middle of this week, with
periodically breezy conditions and gusts in the 20-30 mph range.
Again however, the threat for impactful conditions this far north
remains quite low.

Thursday through the weekend...

A digging Atlantic trough will bring a weak surface front
southward into the area, where it will stall and eventually wash
out. This feature will help to cut a few degrees off high temps
through the back half of the week and bring dewpoints down a
couple of degrees, providing at least a little bit of relief; but
don`t expect temperatures to be unseasonable for July. With the
front not expected to push all the way through, daytime heat
stress levels will still remain elevated for areas south of I-20
through the end of the week. /DL/OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail with few clouds and light and variable
winds. There is still a very low chance (<20%) for a
showers/thunderstorms for our eastern/northeastern sites late
this afternoon into the evening, however; with chances continuing
to remain low, we have eschewed calling for it in the TAFs for
this afternoon. /OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  97  77  97 /  10  10   0  10
Meridian      76  96  76  96 /  10  10   0  10
Vicksburg     78  98  79  98 /  10  20   0   0
Hattiesburg   76  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  20
Natchez       77  98  78 100 /  10  30  10  10
Greenville    78  99  79  96 /  10  10   0   0
Greenwood     76  99  77  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ026-027-036-040>043-
     047>049-053>055-059.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ026-
     027-036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025-
     034-035.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ028>033-037>039-
     044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023-
     025.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ024-026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ075.

&&

$$

OAJ/OAJ/OAJ