797
FXUS64 KJAN 291910
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
110 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be
    followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

  - We are monitoring the potential for light freezing rain over
    far northwest portions of the area Monday morning.

  - Locally heavy rainfall is expected Monday through Monday
    night.

  - It will remain colder than normal with another potential rain
    event late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Tonight through next Friday:

Tonight into Saturday:

Rainfall will continue tonight as a shortwave trough pushes through
the region. Showers are likely with an isolated rumble of thunder
possible. Severe weather is not anticipated as instability/moisture
is limited.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Primary concern for possibly heavy rain and a brief period of wintry
weather continues for Sunday night through Tuesday morning as
another shortwave trough moves across the area. Following tonight`s
front, cold air advection will become entrenched at the surface. By
Sunday evening, warm air advection aloft is expected to lift
moisture over the cold surface air which will bring increased clouds
initially and by perhaps mid morning Monday mostly virga rainfall
will have sufficiently moistened the low-levels to allow for
rainfall to reach the ground. Should this moistening occur
sufficiently quickly before we warm above temperatures hovering
near freezing early Monday morning, portions of SE AR, NW MS Delta
could see some risk for a brief period of trace freezing rain.
However, meaningful accumulation isn`t expected as surface/ground
temps remain well above freezing. Vegetation or elevated surfaces
could become briefly glazed but road surfaces are unlikely to be
sufficiently cold for sufficient duration to result in meaningful
road hazards. Regardless, caution should be exercised when
travailing, particularly over overpasses and less-traveled areas,
as roads will certainly be wet and slick regardless of ice
potential. As the morning progress, any frozen precip in the NW
parts of the area will transition to rain and widespread rainfall
is expected through the rest of Monday and into Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday:

Cold temps are expected post-frontal passage as high range from the
lower 40 in the north to lower 50 degrees in the south and lows
reach the lower 20s to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs are
expected to remain below seasonal averages; however; temps will
gradually warm to where highs reach the mid/upper 50s and lows reach
the mid/upper 30s. Next chances for rainfall is expected Thursday
into the weekend as another shortwave trough traverse the area.
Severe weather isnt currently expected with limited thermodynamic
recovery anticipated and the pattern largely remaining suppressed.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Current VFR conditions will deteriorate over the next several
hours as increasing rain coverage and intensity is expected along
with lowering ceilings. Minimum flight categories to MVFR/IFR are
likely across the area during the overnight period. As a cold
front shifts south overnight, southerly winds will become
northerly, strengthening with gusts in excess of 20 kts into
Sunday morning. Ceilings will begin to improve after 12Z for
GLH/GWO, remaining MVFR/IFR elsewhere through the TAF period. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       46  54  39  52 /  80  70  40  80
Meridian      44  55  37  53 /  60  80  30  70
Vicksburg     41  52  37  48 /  90  50  40  80
Hattiesburg   49  64  44  61 /  30  60  30  60
Natchez       46  56  39  53 /  80  70  50  80
Greenville    36  44  33  40 /  90  20  20  70
Greenwood     38  48  34  45 /  80  30  10  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/86