248
FXUS64 KJAN 090153 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
753 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...


  - Chilly conditions continue early this week with perhaps some
    fog potential tonight.


  - Dry and milder conditions are most likely as we go through
    mid to late week and into the weekend.

  - Colder weather may return by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Rest of Tonight...High pressure at the surface will continue to
build east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley overnight.  An
overall quiet and chilly night is in store for the forecast area.
Low stratus across portions of southeast and east central
Mississippi has slightly eroded a bit this evening, but it remains
firmly entrenched across the remainder of the CWA. This is expected
to be the case through much of the overnight period as lows fall
into the low and middle 30s. If eroding of this stratus deck is more
widespread across the area than what`s currently being forecast,
lows in those places with less cloud cover will be colder and fall
into the upper 20s, with some patchy fog also possible in those area
early Tuesday morning.

The ongoing forecast is currently in good shape.  Other than some
minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on
current trends, no major changes will be made on this evening`s
update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight through Tuesday: In the near term, a low level cold
advection pattern promises to maintain chilly conditions through
Tuesday night, and with that, there is a lot uncertainty
regarding how quickly the stratus may erode as we go into tonight.
High res model guidance suggest the low level cold advection
should shut down at most locations overnight, resulting in a
greater chance for stratus dissipation, but with little mixing of
the boundary layer this afternoon in the feeble early Dec sun,
we`re leaning toward a more pessimistic low cloud forecast.

With greater cloud cover, temperatures would stay above freezing
at many locations, and not get quite as cold as currently
forecast by model blends. Also, there would also be less
opportunity for fog formation. On the flip side, in the case of
earlier clearing, we would have colder lows and greater potential
for fog, but forecast confidence is too low and the dense fog
threat too conditional to formally message it at this point. The
bottom line here is to expect a cloudier and not as cold/foggy
forecast tonight, but monitor for earlier clearing and forecast
changes that would bring.

Tuesday night through the weekend: Dry northwest flow aloft will
be the primary weather influence in our area, and this will
result in seasonable temperatures with little if any chance for
rainfall as we finish up this week and go through the weekend.
There may be a more dramatic warm-up Friday/Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front, with much chillier temperatures following
the frontal passage as we go into Sunday into early next week.
Forecast confidence for temperatures in the longer range remains
quite low due to large variance in the global ensembles and poor
run-to-run consistency with the details in our area. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Low stratus is trying to erode across the region this evening,
but it`s currently struggling and thus looks to plague area TAF
sites overnight into Tuesday morning. This, along with the
potential for some patchy fog, mainly south of Interstate 20, will
yield MVFR/IFR flight categories at TAF sites though at least
late morning Tuesday. Stratus is currently forecast to gradually
erode through late morning, with a return to VFR categories
expected by midday. Winds overnight will be calm to light with an
increasing easterly component. These will gradually become more
southerly into Tuesday afternoon between 3-8 knots. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       32  58  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      30  57  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     33  58  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   33  59  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       32  59  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    32  54  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     31  56  40  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19