373
FXUS64 KJAN 021119
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
519 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy light frost is possible across much of the forecast
    area Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Through Today:

A closed low will support a cold front dropping through our CWA
this morning as it tracks southeast and becomes centered over
northwest Alabama. With these features in play you`d think we
would have decent rain chances in our CWA, only a few light
showers are possible along the front. Without any appreciable
moisture advection or moisture convergence anticipated over our
CWA, models are stingy with any qpf or pops. Compared to last
night, morning lows Sunday will be cooler across the northwest
half of the CWA and slightly warmer across the southeast half. A
>1024mb surface high will build into the region Sunday in the wake
of the cold front. This will help hold afternoon highs in the 50s
across our Highway 82 corridor and in the low to mid 60s across
our south.

Tonight through next Saturday:

Global guidance continues to show a a 1024mb sfc high over the
Central Plains pushing southwards and settling over the southeast
CONUS along with building heights aloft this evening. This looks
to setup for a pretty cool night for Sunday night with nighttime
lows in the mid/upper 30s and dewpoints in the 30s. This combined
with light northerly winds will allow for patchy frost to develop
across much of our CWA. Because of this, a "Limited" threat for
patchy frost remains in place for our entire forecast area
including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast
Louisiana parishes for Sunday night/early Monday morning
timeframe.

Heights will begin to build aloft heading into the new work week as
a sfc high continues to hover over our area. Ridging becomes
dominant heading into Tuesday leading to warmer weather across the
southeast CONUS. Afternoon highs will peak in the 70s with lows
dipping into the 50s. Quiet conditions will prevail across our area
through the late week. Future guidance continues to show the ridge
flattening by Friday in advance of a shortwave. This could lead to a
brief return of scattered rain showers across our CWA with slightly
higher rain chances (25-30%) across north MS heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

MVFR visibilities are being reported this morning and will
gradually clear after daybreak as dry air pushes in. Few to
scattered high clouds will persist today in the east. Winds will
be light from the north. /SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      64  36  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     62  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  38  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       64  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    59  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     60  36  66  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/SAS20