629
FXUS64 KJAN 302327
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
627 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return by late week with widespread rainfall
  expected this weekend before cooler and drier conditions into
  middle of next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rest of today into tonight...

Last day of quiet and warm weather is on tap across the region.
589-590DM mid level ridge axis is centered across the area but
becoming squeezed in between the stout trough over the Desert
Southwest and upper low over the northeast Gulf. At the surface,
southerly return flow and increased gradient from high pressure to
the east and remnant low pressure over the north-central Plains is
aiding in some uptick in gradient winds. This is pattern supports
 one last day of deep dry air and efficient mixing, especially in
north-central to northeast MS and extreme southeast AR. In these
areas, winds are a touch more breezy and humidity will drop down
into the mid to upper 30s percent range (30-35%), so a limited
fire danger threat still exists across these areas. Take precautions
with any outdoor burning and heed any local burn bans. Highs and
lows will be seasonably warm, some 8-15F above (91-95F for highs
and 66-72F for lows). There are some dense fog probs overnight in
the HREF and REFS but confidence over dry ground, even with moist
advection, lowers confidence of dense fog. In this advection scheme,
coastal dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 70s (72-74F),
so there could be some crossover temps approaching the 3-4F range.
Added patchy fog but will hold off introduction in HWO graphics.
Updates were shipped out earlier. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Thursday through early next week (Tuesday)...

Thursday into weekend: A change to a wetter weather pattern is
still anticipated for late this week into the weekend as the
previously mentioned trough helps to induce increased southerly
flow and moisture transport, with deep level moisture eventually
increasing to anomalous levels over the forecast area (e.g.,
precipitable water 2 to 3 SD positive anomalies). Given the
prolonged presence of weak synoptic scale ascent related to the
subtle but persistent upper jet influence and modest low level
moisture convergence, the forecast reflects a long duration of
high rain chances in the Friday through Sunday time frame.

While prospects for a wet weekend remain high, the potential impacts
related to this upcoming wet weather pattern are quite uncertain,
especially when considering that model guidance has continued to
shift weaker with the upper trough presence and stronger with the
southeast CONUS subtropical high center. Because of this, heavier
QPF has shifted some closer to the coast and brings into question
the potential for heavier rainfall. Regardless of the heavy rain
potential, given how dry it has been recently, the rain that does
fall would be highly beneficial in most cases.

Next week: Looking ahead, drier and somewhat cooler air should
surge into the forecast area as northwest flow aloft becomes the
primary driver for our weather. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

There is a low to medium chance for MVFR ceilings and patchy fog
for a few hours around daybreak Thursday morning, mainly at
HBG/PIB/HEZ. Then, isolated to scattered SHRA and TS are expected
during the late morning to afternoon hours, mainly along and
south of I-20, with potential to result in brief ceiling/visby
reductions at impacted sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  92  71  91 /   0  30  10  50
Meridian      68  91  69  91 /   0  20  10  60
Vicksburg     70  93  71  92 /   0  20  10  30
Hattiesburg   70  91  70  90 /   0  50  30  90
Natchez       71  93  71  92 /   0  30  10  60
Greenville    70  94  73  91 /   0  10  30  60
Greenwood     69  94  71  92 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/EC/DL