Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
713 FXUS62 KJAX 151115 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 715 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low pressure trough off the Florida East Coast near the Gulf Stream this morning will track slowly westward today pushing across North Central Florida this afternoon and into the Eastern Gulf Tonight. With the strong northerly shear aloft across the low pressure system, not expecting much intensification of the low pressure, but it will interact the East Coast sea breeze front as it pushes westward across North Central this afternoon and the tropical moisture with this system will help to trigger numerous to widespread showers and storms across NE FL as it moves across the region this afternoon, and again the main threat will be heavy rainfall, but a few strong to isolated storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph still possible through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Farther north across SE GA, slightly lower moisture values will lead to more scattered shower and storm coverage. Surface flow will more onshore from the Northeast today at 10-15 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F, with heat indices of 100-105F along the I-95 and US 301 corridors, while farther inland with later arrival of convection, expect Max Temps to reach into the lower/middle 90s with peak heat indices around 105F. Convection over inland areas will fade after sunset and end by midnight, while the South to Southeast flow on the back side of the system will continue widely scattered showers and storms, mainly over the Atlantic Coastal waters tonight, but a few may push onshore into the Atlantic Coastal counties during the overnight hours as they weaken. Low temps generally in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Area of low pressure will move west across northern Gulf Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the east. There will still be local impacts from the low Wednesday, in the form of higher precipitation chances over inland areas, as moisture wraps northeast across region from the low. Precipitation chances will decrease a little on Thursday, as high pressure ridge moves closer to overhead. Temperatures this period will trend a little above average. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The high pressure ridge will continue to extend across the area Friday. The ridge will move to the southeast over the weekend, as a trough develops in the southeastern US. This pattern will persist then into early next week. Above average precipitation chances expected this period, especially inland due to flow from the south then southwest. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Low stratus deck over GNV will gradually lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours. A low off the coast of Daytona Beach will shift westward across north-central FL today into tonight. NNE winds this morning will shift to ESE later this afternoon and then to SSE tonight with the low. Winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20kts this afternoon. Only a few showers (VCSH) are expected through 15Z at SGJ/SSI, otherwise will need to wait for the East Coast sea breeze to develop and push inland through the afternoon hours with PROB30 groups for TSRA activity at CRG/JAX and with higher rainfall chances at SGJ/GNV/VQQ will place TEMPO groups. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A weak area of low pressure over the Gulf Stream off the Florida East Coast will begin to shift westward this morning. An increase in showers and thunderstorms coverage is expected Today as the low shifts westward across the Florida peninsula tonight and into the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, with low pressure potentially strengthening later in the week near the northern Gulf coast. NHC has highlighted the northern Gulf coast for a low chance of tropical/subtropical development for this week. Prevailing northeasterly winds Today will shift to southerly by tonight as the low shifts west of our local waters, with south-southeasterly winds briefly strengthening to Caution levels tonight and Wednesday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late in the week as southerly winds prevail. Rip Currents: A more solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today as the low pressure off the Florida East Coast tracks westward into Florida Peninsula tonight, which will increase onshore winds slightly today with surf/breakers around 2 feet. Moderate risk will continue on Wednesday as South to Southeast winds increase surf/breakers to 2-3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 74 92 74 / 40 20 60 10 SSI 87 78 88 79 / 40 20 40 10 JAX 90 74 93 76 / 50 30 70 10 SGJ 88 74 91 76 / 60 30 70 10 GNV 91 72 92 74 / 90 60 90 20 OCF 90 72 91 74 / 100 50 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$