663
FXUS62 KJAX 132215
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
615 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Oppressive Heat & Humidity Continues Area-Wide. For Today and
Friday, Extreme Heat Warning for Coastal Southeast GA. Daily Heat
Advisories Likely Continue for Much of Our Area into Next Week

- A Few Strong Thunderstorms this Afternoon & Evening. Isolated
  Damaging Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy
  Downpours are Possible

- Daily Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Friday through Tues

&&

.UPDATE...
Amble instability and moisture have kicked off thunderstorms across
the area this afternoon, with a couple strong to severe storms
already as well. Outflow boundary collisions as well as the Atlantic
sea breeze which is now west of the St. Johns river basin, are
expected to pop up more storms this evening, with convection
generally weakening after the loss of daytime heating after sunset.
Most of the area currently has DCAPE values near 1,000 J/kg, and
storms are moving quick enough to limit flooding concerns, so gusty
winds remains the primary threat. Outside of storms, temperatures
are still in the 90s with heat index values close to Heat Advisory
conditions.

A Heat Advisory is in effect Friday from 11am - 8pm for the entire
area, expect for coastal southeast Georgia which is under another
Extreme Heat Warning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into early evening, though coverage should be lower than
Wednesday. Will maintain PROB30 MVFR TSRA from approximately
19-23Z, with subsequent updates to refine timing and coverage.
Thunderstorms will diminish after sunset, with light winds and
generally VFR conditions prevailing. The exception will be VQQ,
where visibility could briefly decrease to around 4SM between
08-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A trough of low pressure will develop over the southeast states
through the weekend while a high pressure ridge remains
positioned over the eastern Gulf and central Florida. This will
result in westerly winds during the next several days, with the
sea breeze shifting winds to southeast or south over the near
shore waters each afternoon, followed by south evening wind
surges that may briefly increase speeds to near caution levels
before subsiding after midnight. Stronger offshore flow may
develop Monday and Tuesday next week. Isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible
each day through the upcoming weekend, and some of the storms
will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally high
seas.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and little if any east-
southeast swell energy will keep surf heights near or below 2 feet
at area beaches. Thus, generally low risk of rip currents through
Friday. Only heightened risk of rip currents will be around piers
and jetties and also around the times of low tide, which for today
and Friday will be around 3 PM to 5 PM. Going into the weekend,
there is not much change with low surf heights so the low risk of
rips may continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Headlines in Effect

Warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with
highs in the mid 90s inland and lower to mid 90s along the coast
today. Above-normal temperatures will persist through the weekend,
with additional Heat Advisories likely, although isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms may provide some
relief and limit the duration of heat index values near or above
advisory criteria. A cold front will move south into the area
Saturday and stall near the Florida/Georgia line Sunday, focusing
the highest storm chances along and south of the boundary,
particularly toward the I-10 corridor Saturday.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected. Any late-
night or early-morning fog should be shallow and patchy, mainly in
areas that receive locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  96  76  96 /  20  40  10  50
SSI  80  93  79  95 /  10  40  10  30
JAX  76  95  75  95 /  20  70  20  40
SGJ  77  93  76  94 /  10  40  20  20
GNV  75  95  74  95 /  30  60  30  30
OCF  76  95  75  96 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-
     154-165-166.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ153-
     154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$