480
FXUS62 KJAX 272313
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
713 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and St
  Johns River Basin through tonight

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin
during times of high tide through this evening

Dry air mass will remain in place with a westerly steering flow in
place in the low levels, while higher clouds will push in aloft.
Despite the filtered sunshine, expect Max temps to return closer to
normal levels in the middle 80s. Light and variable winds inland,
with an East Coast sea breeze development during the afternoon hours
pushing inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors, but not enough moisture
aloft for any shower activity. Cooler than normal overnight lows
will continue tonight in the dry air mass with lows in the mid/upper
50s inland SE GA, lower 60s inland NE FL and mid/upper 60s along the
Atlantic Coast. A slight increase in moisture filters in from the
west allowing for some shallow, patchy dense fog to develop around
sunrise across inland SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Wednesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

Dry weather conditions will continue through Monday with a potential
for scattered showers and storms to develop Tuesday afternoon over
north central Florida as prevailing flow shifts about to become more
out of the south with drier air over the region receding to the
north and high pressure from out of the east extends to influence
the flow pattern over the southeastern US. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the beginning of the week with
overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and
lower to mid 60s for inland areas by the end of the forecast period,
with min temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s along the
coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Wednesday through Saturday):

- Increasing chances for convection each day this period

Chances for showers and potential storms will increase through
Friday as high pressure off to the northeast brings a moist
southeasterly onshore flow over northeast Florida and into southeast
Georgia. Convection will become more widespread by Saturday ahead of
a frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest. Above
average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and
into the weekend with daily high temps rising up into the lower 90s
for inland areas and in the mid 80s for counties along the coastline.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with light and variable winds overnight. Patchy fog
will be possible between 08-11Z at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will shift over the region through Monday with
prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the
afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation.
High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with
southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the
nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture
will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4
to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period
swells will slowly subside early this week with a likely return to
Moderate Risk of Rip currents on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal zone extending from a low off the coast of the
northeastern US will be over area through Tuesday morning. High
pressure will then build to the northeast Tuesday afternoon. The
high will gradually become centered more toward the east
northeast Wednesday through Friday. Moisture will increase this
period, bringing more seasonal levels of precipitation chances
toward late week.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected this morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into tonight
with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide within the
St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic coast/ICWW. Water
levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher
High Water (MHHW) Today/Tonight and may need to be extended into
Monday with the next forecast package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  68  86  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  63  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  64  87  68  87 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  62  89  67  89 /   0  10   0  10
OCF  63  90  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ125-132-
     137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$