775
FXUS62 KJAX 030009
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
709 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog & Sea Fog Tonight and Early Tuesday Morning. Sea
Fog expands onshore Tonight. Nightly Areas of Dense Fog Likely
through the Week

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf
and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

- Record High Temperatures Later This Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Dense sea fog has once again expanded onshore to coastal areas
north of St. Augustine this evening lowering visibilities to
less than a mile prompting Dense Fog Advisories. Fog/stratus
will continue to expand inland through the night along the I-95
corridor and St. Johns river basin. Dense Fog Advisories will
likely need to be expanded later tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

  - Dense fog near the Southeast Georgia coast this evening and
    inland north of I-10 overnight

Temperatures will rise into the 70s to near 80 inland, with slightly
cooler temperatures near the Atlantic coast as onshore winds
continue. Cloud cover will increase overnight, especially over
southeast Georgia, with low temps in the 50s areawide. Heavy cloud
cover is currently making way southward down the Georgia coast, as
onshore winds push clouds inland elsewhere.

Fog will begin to develop near the southeast Georgia coast this
evening, with coverage expanding southward and inland throughout the
night. The highest chances for dense fog will be near the coast this
evening then inland towards sunrise, generally north of I-10. Fog
will begin to clear after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights During the Period:

- Nightly Fog, Possibly Locally Dense
- Moderate to High Rip Currents

Mid to upper level ridging will build over the region through this
period, with the geopotential heights from 850 mb to 500 mb rising
to the 90th percentile of climatology, telling us that the temps
will be well above normal. The airmass remains largely dry with
PWATS below 1 inch Tuesday but may rise to about 0.8 or 1 inch on
Wednesday as the mean layer high center moves offshore of the
southeast CONUS and provides a more moist southeasterly flow. At the
surface, the ridge axis will remain to the north of the area over
the Carolinas keeping an easterly and then southeasterly wind flow
later on the period.

Models gradually nudge up dewpoints which will be more favorable for
some fog development at night and early morning. Not surprisingly,
the NBM is suggesting more foggy conditions Tue night and Wed night.

Dense fog is likely in some locations and primary areas of concern
will be along the coastal counties and parts of southeast GA where
boundary layer winds are lighter. However, certainly could see some
dense fog over parts of northeast FL.

A few showers possible over the coastal waters mainly offshore as a
weak inverted surface forms Tue-Wed.

Max temps lower 80s inland on Tuesday, go to the mid 80s by
Wednesday. Coastal areas will be several degrees cooler due to
onshore flow. Lows mild from about 50-55 inland around 60 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Weather Highlights:

- Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend
- Isolated Thunderstorms possible over the Weekend

Deep layer high pressure system will remain east of the area keeping
a southeast and south 1000-500 mb flow for the area. PWATs may rise
up to about 1.2 inches which may support a few showers during the
peak heating, but t-storm chances are below 5-10 percent given the
subsidence aloft. Best chance of showers will be near the I-75
corridor Thursday and Friday based on both the NBM and latest GFS.
During the weekend and early next week, the ridge aloft becomes
weaker and modest instability may develop to encourage an isolated
storm or two during the afternoon hours. Periods of sea fog will
also be possible due to the warm, moist air moving over the cool
coastal waters. Otherwise, not much change to the forecast of above
normal temps, probably near record or record temps from Thursday
into the weekend. See the climate section for the current record
information for the climate sites.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
LIFR sea fog will continue to expand from NE to SW across the TAF
sites tonight into Tuesday morning. LIFR conditions are already
present at SSI and CRG with JAX and SGJ dropping likely within
an hour or 2. The setup is looking similar to last night where
the fog/stratus will linger at the sites until 09-12Z. NE winds
5-10 kts this evening become light overnight then return after
15Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Dense sea fog across the nearshore waters will likely linger into
mid-late Tuesday morning hours. High pressure will strengthen to the
north northeast tonight, as a coastal trough develops over the
waters. The high will move more toward the northeast Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the coastal trough gradually weakening. The high
will be centered to the east northeast Thursday into the weekend,
with the ridge extending across forecast area.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area
beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2
to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases later today into Tuesday as
onshore flow strengthens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Today

A pattern shift with strong mid to upper level ridge building across
the region this week and will lead to near record temperatures
Thursday and Friday. Critical weather conditions don`t appear to
align through the next week, but the transition to moist, and mildly
unstable, airmass later this week may lead to a moderate sea breeze.
There is some potential for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms for inland districts over the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible early
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Patchy fog to areas of fog possible
again Thursday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 4:
KAMG: 86/1961

March 5:
KJAX: 87/2020
KGNV: 87/1997
KAMG: 87/1989

March 6:
KGNV: 87/2023
KAMG: 86/1961

March 7:
KGNV: 88/2023
KAMG: 86/1956

March 8:
KJAX: 88/1945
KGNV: 88/1921
KAMG: 86/1974


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:
KGNV: 66/1935

March 8:
KGNV: 65/1973

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  78  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  69  56  71 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  54  77  56  79 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  57  74  58  76 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  55  82  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  55  83  59  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ124-125.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452.

&&

$$