859
FXUS62 KJAX 190405
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today

- Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tues Morning

- Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland
  Locations this week

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-
  Wide this weekend

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

- Locally Dense Fog inland areas this morning and again late Tonight

Surface high pressure ridge axis will remain stationed just north of
the region with an easterly steering flow through the period. Drier
air mass for mid-May time frame with PWATs less than 1.5 inches will
only support widely scattered showers and isolated storms at times
over the Atlantic Coastal waters and near the coast at night then
moving inland across Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor during
the afternoon hours as the breezy East Coast sea breeze pushes
inland with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20-
25 mph at times. Max temps will remain slightly above normal with
highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and
middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Boundary layer cooling over
inland areas will support low temps in the 60s and locally dense fog
during the late night/early morning hours, but likely not
significant enough to become widespread at this time. Onshore flow
will keep Atlantic Coastal Min temps in the lower/middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze
pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely
into midweek.

High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as onshore flow
persist through midweek. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
storms continue to be focused over inland locations, particularly
over NE FL on Wednesday. By Thursday, chances of precipitation
lessen a bit, but will still have isolated activity as the sea
breeze moves inland during the afternoon hours. The persistent east-
southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the
coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph  each afternoon.
Warm temperatures continue through midweek as daytime highs each
afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to
the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will
have highs in the mid 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be
in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the
mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend

- Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the
upcoming holiday weekend into next week.

A frontal boundary pushing towards the SE US is expected to slow and
stall north of the local area, while high pressure over the western
Atlantic begins to shift east. With less influence from the high
pressure, the onshore flow will become more southeasterly-southerly
on Friday and through the weekend. This will allow for the inland
push of both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon. PWATs
will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2"
for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally
heavy downpours for any storms that develop. Chances of showers
currently is forecast in the 40% to 50% with wider coverage of
showers and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards
central locations of the area.

The warm temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs
will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of
convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast.
Overnight Lows will be in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Onshore flow will create the potential for MVFR restrictions in
stratus near the coast early this morning. Further inland, fog
formation will lead to potential IFR/MVFR restrictions at VQQ and
GNV towards sunrise (08-12Z)

For Tuesday, conditions will trend to VFR during the mid to late
morning hours, and continue through the afternoon. There is a chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland Tuesday, which could
affect GNV. At this point it is too early to place restrictions in
GNV TAF for what is expected to be only isolated convection.

East to Southeast winds expected to increase once again to 10-14G15-
21 knots during the afternoon hours as the East Coast sea breeze
pushes inland past the terminals, then fades after sunset Tuesday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...


Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend
its axis across the southeastern states through the end of the week.
Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our
local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will
briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution
conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from
Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes
reinforced near Bermuda.

Rip Currents:

Persistent east to southeast winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a
high risk of rip currents in place Today and at least a moderate
risk at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks
again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as
late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
`...PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK...

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly
transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions
inland each afternoon through the week. Easterly to southeasterly
winds persists through the week, allowing for moisture to continue
to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular
concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic,
convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as
the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and
coverage of showers and storms is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the
week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings for inland locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  63  90  66 /  20   0  10   0
SSI  82  71  84  74 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  88  67  89  69 /  10   0  10   0
SGJ  86  71  87  72 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  92  67  92  69 /  30   0  30   0
OCF  93  67  91  70 /  40  10  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$