879
FXUS62 KJAX 071713
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
113 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Approaching frontal boundary pushing into inland SE GA this
afternoon will interact with deep moisture (PWATs around 2 inches)
already in place across the rest of SE GA and all of NE FL with
numerous showers and storms breaking out through the rest of the
afternoon hours with strong to isolated severe storms possible
with gusty winds of 40-60 mph, along with locally heavy rainfall
threat due to slow moving and back-building storm activity along
outflow boundaries and other convergent lines that set up through
the evening hours. Best chances for showers and storms will be
ahead of the frontal boundary from the FL/GA border southward
across all of NE FL including along the East Coast sea breeze
boundary near the I-95 corridor. The last of the evening
convection along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL around sunset,
should end by midnight, then focus will shift to coastal SE GA as
the surge of NE winds begins to approach and expect and increase
in shower and storm activity over the SE GA coastal waters and
along the Atlantic Coastal Counties from Brunswick, GA southward
to JAX by the early morning hours towards sunrise Monday morning.
Low temps will fall to around 70F across inland SE GA behind the
frontal boundary, but only fall into the lower to middle 70s
across inland NE FL and mid to upper 70s along the Atlantic
Coastal areas in the onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Cold front settles just south of the region by Monday Morning, and
moves very little through the short term period. A ridge of high
pressure builds southward across southeast GA and into northeast
FL in its wake, which will not only suppress the highest rain
chances into northeast FL, but also bring a surge of northeasterly
winds as an inverted trough develops over the far western
Atlantic. Periods of showers will stream onshore Tuesday and into
Wednesday, enhanced diurnally at times especially in areas
furthest south closer to the stalled boundary. But the highest
impacts will likely come in the form of hazardous marine and beach
conditions, as sustained winds will be in the 15-20 mph range
closer to the coast with gusts up to around 30mph resulting in
higher risk for rip currents, rough surf, and some potential for
coastal flooding/beach erosion. Winds look to remain below wind
advisory criteria at this time, though will continue to monitor
trends over the next 12 to 24 hours. After a very warm Sunday,
cooler highs below normal will be expected area wide both Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s common. With the
lingering front/coastal trough, showers and isolated thunderstorm
threat will continue through the nighttime hours closer to the
coast. Stronger variance with low temps expected given the
gradient in the airmass/low level moisture: mid to upper 60s will
be expected over most of GA with low to mid 70s over FL and the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

The gradient relaxes a bit Wednesday as high pressure ridging
weakens ahead of the next front/upper trough that will approach
and likely move into/across the region around Thursday/Friday.
Long term guidance is in pretty good agreement that an upper
trough will swing towards northern FL and be enough to push the
same frontal boundary further south, ushering in even more drier
air into the area, especially the further north and west you go.
However, beyond about the Friday time frame, guidance starts to
diverge with respect to the handling of this early season trough
and potential cut off low, mostly with respect to amplitude and
positioning which would have a modest to significant impact on our
weather heading into next weekend. However, at this time, looks as
though it will bring enough dry air to at least keep precip
chances below normal through the long term period, but especially
from Thursday onwards. Temps also trend generally near to below
normal accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Showers and storms already breaking out along the East Coast sea
breeze/I-95 corridor and will need to upgrade most of the PROB30
groups to TEMPO groups for the 18-22Z time frame for MVFR CIGS and
IFR VSBYS at SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ, while still expecting slightly
later at GNV in the 19-23Z time frame. Shower chances fade after
sunset, but in the onshore flow will likely need to keep VCSH at
the coastal TAF sites through the night with mainly VFR CIGS,
further inland expect a downward trend in CIGS down to MVFR levels
at VQQ/GNV by the 08-12Z time frame along with some light fog
potential, but not expecting IFR CIGS at this time. NE wind surge
will push down the Atlantic Coast along with increased rainfall
chances and widespread MVFR CIGS, pushing into the SSI terminal by
12Z and the JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ terminals in the 14-16Z time frame
with MVFR VSBYS possible in shower and isolated storm activity as
well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A frontal zone will sink south across the area through Tonight.
The front will remain to the south through the week. An inverted
trough will be located over the western Atlantic with high
pressure to the north for much of the week. The gradient between
these two features will be tightest early in the week, then again
late in the week. Elevated winds will be the result for Monday
into Tuesday, then again Friday into Saturday. Small craft
advisory headlines have been posted for the SE GA waters and the
NE FL waters north of St. Augustine and may need to be extended
southward to the rest of the NE FL waters in later forecast
packages.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents Today with light
onshore flow and surf/breakers around 2 feet. Still expecting high
risk of rip currents developing Monday and continuing through most
of the week with the upcoming surge of NE winds Monday which will
then remain onshore the remainder of the week. Surf/breakers
building to at least 4-6 ft, with high surf headlines possible by
Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A cool front will sink southward across the area through Tonight,
settling just south of the region for most of the upcoming week.
High pressure building in from the north will combine with an
inverted trough over the western Atlantic, resulting in elevated
winds near the coast, especially Monday and Tuesdays. Otherwise
daily showers and thunderstorms are expected this period, with
greatest chances over NE FL closest to the frontal zone as drier
air fills in over interior GA from the northwest. Areas of low
dispersions will be found this afternoon and evening, especially
south of I-10 in NE FL and at the immediate coasts thanks to
plenty of cloud cover and rather weak flow aloft pre front. These
fair to borderline low dispersions will stick around through the
next several days across NE FL while fair to good dispersions
return over interior GA in the direr airmass. Another front late
in the week will bring additional drier air into the region,
especially the further north and west you go.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Surge of NE winds on Monday will combine with already above normal
astronomical tides due to the full moon and expect at least Minor
Coastal Flooding during high tide cycles from Monday Night onward
through most of the week along the Atlantic Coastal beachfront
locations as well as down the St. Johns River Basin. Coastal Flood
Advisories expected to be posted on Monday for minor coastal
flooding levels, but too soon to tell if Moderate water levels can
be realized by the Tuesday time frame or not.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  69  84  67 /  30  30  30  20
SSI  87  74  82  72 /  30  40  60  60
JAX  91  73  85  72 /  60  30  70  60
SGJ  89  75  85  74 /  60  50  80  70
GNV  91  72  87  71 /  70  40  80  40
OCF  91  72  86  73 /  70  40  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ452-472.

&&

$$